Markets at 18-month highs as inflation abates, euro and oil collapse


Turkish financial markets continued to rally this past week as crude oil's five month-long decline has yet to abate. Brent crude traded at $48 a barrel late Monday and indications out of OPEC suggest they are in no hurry to cut production. I had predicted several months ago that crude oil would fall from $90 to $40, and that prediction is on the verge of materializing. Admittedly, this happened during the 2008 crisis; so, those that believed that international markets have yet to fully recover from that crisis saw this collapse of the crude market coming. Turkish markets, despite being surrounded by instability, conflict and political turmoil, have continued to rally. Some argue that the regional developments have actually caused the Turkish rally. Investors are looking for the best option to invest their money in, and Turkey is currently the best performing European country.The benchmark BIST-100 equity index started off the year in a surprisingly strong fashion, bucking European and global trends. The index traded higher again Monday, standing at 88,669 points at the start of the second session. This brings the index up over 3 percent for 2015 and up over 21 percent in the last three months alone. As an impending global recession approaches the "double dip" that never really materialized following the 2008 crisis, investors are flocking to safe havens. Turkey has been rewarded recently, as the drop in crude oil has uniquely benefited it. As an energy-dependent country, every cent that crude oil falls is a penny saved by Turkish consumers and federal and regional governments. If the Turkish government and households use this opportunity to put away what they have gained in terms of energy savings, the Turkish economy will continue to steam ahead. If instead this is used as an opening to import more consumable goods, the opportunity that exists as a result of this crude collapse will have been squandered. The relatively weak Turkish lira has made this last possibility less likely. As a consumer consumption-based economy, Turkish consumers will likely spend much of what they saved in cheaper energy elsewhere, which will continue to push consumer stocks and the banking sector higher.A recent turnaround in the dollar-lira trade has caused many investors to regain faith in the lira and securities denominated by the national currency. The most popular of these instruments are government debt. The lira had traded as low as 2.4 liras to the U.S. dollar in the past month but has gained 5 percent since then, currently trading at 2.28 liras to the dollar. Resurgence in the lira coupled with a collapsing euro and near zero yields in the eurozone caused fixed income investors to put money to work in Turkish government debt. The benchmark short-end two-year issue currently yields 7.3 percent annually. This is the lowest level it has traded at in the last 18-months and signals interest rate cuts to come. Bond yields are inversely related to their price, so a drop in yield means an increase in price. Last week's lower inflation numbers indicate falling energy prices working their way into consumer goods. The long-end 10-year bond also continued to rally, trading at 7.14 percent late Monday. This is also a record for the 10-year bringing it to its best levels in the last 18 months. The bond-heavy balance sheets of banking stocks appear to have benefited the most from this rally, thereby causing the bank-heavy BIST index to trade higher as well. Insuring Turkish corporate debt was slightly more expensive Monday as global concerns over an impending global recession have caused Credit-Default Swaps (CDSs) - the instruments that insure against political and economic uncertainty - to rally. Currently, the five-year corporate CDS rate for Turkey trades at 1.88 percent, down four basis points. Turkey continues to be cheaper to insure than some of its eurozone neighbors, including Portugal whose CDSs trade about 15 basis points higher than that of Turkey's. The Central Registry Agency's (MKK) foreign participation in the Turkish equity markets index was also higher, up eight basis points, putting foreign ownership of Turkish stocks at 63.92 percent. The recent terror attacks in Paris will most likely cause European countries to be more motivated to help end the turmoil in the Middle East, especially in Syria. This will lead to a quicker resolution and rout of both the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and the Bashar Assad regime, bringing the humanitarian crisis to an end. This will cause Turkish markets to rally throughout 2015.