Foreign investment peaks as protests fizzle


Turkish financial markets held their breath briefly last week in anticipation of the first anniversary of the Gezi protests and the incredible damage they caused the Turkish economy; however, any reservations investors may have had appear to have abated this weekend as protests were much smaller and lasted only hours this year. Perhaps the overwhelmingly violent nature of the isolated incidents now dominated by extremists groups discouraged would-be peaceful protestors from risking their lives by joining the marginal groups in the streets.Aside from a few masked men wielding fire arms and Molotov cocktails, protests were nearly non-existent throughout the country. This, of course, did not prevent foreign news agencies from milking any small protest on an otherwise slow news day. The French AFP agency was particularly one-sided and appeared to encourage protests in its reporting. Protesting being the national pastime in France, this may not have surprised some readers. Investors watched carefully to gauge what, if any, impact this would have on broader markets come Monday and traded, betting there would be little to no impact and their predictions were confirmed at the opening bell Monday. The recent nationwide municipal elections held two months ago may have convinced many protestors that the voice of the country was heard recently enough at the ballot boxes and that support for the governing AK Party was reiterated.The benchmark BIST-100 index jumped at the open Monday trading at 79,800 points, up from the 78,603 close of last Monday as investors apparently anticipated the disenfranchisement the public would feel with the Gezi protest movement and realized the confirmation of their assumptions on Monday morning.With no significant data released last week, markets bet on how large the anniversary protests would be and the actual protests were much smaller than even the lowend estimates. Inflation numbers will be released Tuesday.No major surprises are expected and investors will be watching to see whether Erdem Başçı i's prediction that inflation will peak in June will be realized. Başçı had previously commented that it would take time for the currency shock that the Turkish lira experienced following the Dec. 17 crisis to work its way through the system.The lack of meaningful support for widespread demonstrations in the run-up to the anniversary pushed Turkish bonds higher as their yields continued to fall.The benchmark two-year bond traded at a yield of 8.36 percent down from 8.6 percent last week and the 10-year bond traded down slightly at 8.98 percent from 9 percent a week ago. The continued decrease in yields seems to support the decision of the Central Bank of Turkey (TCMB) to decrease interest rates last week. On Monday, TCMB Chairman Erdem Başçı will present his biannual report to the prime minister's cabinet, presumably addressing the concerns the government has with the slownature of the Central Bank's decreasing of rates to precrisis levels. Last year's protests had pushed credit default swaps (CDSs) to multi-year highs of over 2.4 percent last June. Monday, CDSs traded at 1.79 percent down 25 percent from last year's level. CDSs also are down from last week's level when they traded at 1.81 percent. CDSs are essentially an insurance policy against the political and economic risk associated with a country.The lira continues to trade in a tight pattern reaching TL 2.10 to the dollar Monday morning, the mid-point of the 2.05 to 2.10 range it has been trading at recently.The Central Registry Agency's (MKK) "Foreign Participation in Turkish Equity Markets index" hit 63.99 percent Friday, up 0.33 percent from last week, reaching its highest value since last year's Gezi protest. This is great news for Turkish markets as it shows foreign investment is the highest it has been in the last year and is on its way to returning to much higher values. Whether or not this is ultimately a good thing for Turkish markets is another issue, but major inflows to Turkish equity markets are welcomed by investors wherever they come from.Potential rate cuts and the beginning of the much anticipated quantitative easing scheme by the ECB, or at least a firm indication that it will soon begin is expected this week. The ECB meets this week and will release its interest rate decision on Thursday, followed by a press conference by Chairman Mario Draghi. Draghi had earlier indicated that the ECB could begin easing in June. This could be one of the reasons why we are seeing a run-up in Turkish financial markets, investors fleeing a currency on the way down and securities in the midst of stagnation.