Investors ignore Moody's change in outlook
Markets saw modest profit taking after the recent run-up in the value of the Turkish lira and the benchmark BIST-100 index. Investors shrugged off a change in outlook from a credit ratings agency last week, the current account deficit continued to improve, the Turkish lira was down slightly, Bond prices increased, and the benchmark index was up slightly. Foreign investors moved more money into Turkey, betting that political stability had returned to the country and credit default swaps traded lower, echoing the positive sentiment from the investor community.On Thursday, U.S. credit ratings agency Moody's reaffirmed Turkey's investment grade status while changing the outlook of the country to negative.Globally, investors have begun to temper their faith in the views of credit rating agencies as their forward- looking calls generally lag actual market data.To change the outlook to negative of a country days after its stock market surges over 20 percent is ironic and leads investors to question the motives of the credit ratings agency.Current account deficit numbers improved, shrinking to $3.19 billion down from over $5.1 billion, year-over-year. Although the deficit was predicted to shrink even more, this data didn't move markets. The Turkish lira was down against the U.S. dollar by 1.4 percent, down from 2.09 at the close on Monday to its current level of 2.12 as foreign exchange traders took some money off the table after the incredible rally of the lira against the dollar in the run-up to the municipal election that took place two weeks ago. That lira had been up over 6 percent against the U.S. dollar in the last two weeks.The cost of borrowing, reflected in Turkish Bond prices, continued to decrease as both the Turkish ten-year bond and benchmark two-year bond saw their yields drop as prices increased. The yield on the bonds decreased to 10.2 percent and 10.04 percent, respectively, Monday afternoon, down from 10.28 percent and 10.34 percent, respectively. These are major drops reflecting continued confidence by investors in the Turkish economy.Markets traded up in the last week as the BIST-100 increased from a 72,489 a week ago to 73,200 Monday afternoon, improving by 1 percent. In the Turkey of the past, any call by any credit ratings agency would have been widely accepted by investors and markets would have been punished but the markets have, as we have seen, practically ignored Moody's altogether.The Central Securities Depository's foreign ownership of Turkish securities index released by the MKK, as the depository is known in Turkey, continued to increase even after the Moody's warning to 63.7, up 0.3 percent since last week. This number is very important as it most directly reflects foreign investor confidence in Turkish markets.The other important indicator of foreign investor sentiment in Turkish markets is credit default swap (CDS) trading. CDS numbers improved to 2.08 percent down from 2.09 percent last week, another indication that the Moody's report was largely unheralded.No major release of data is expected this week as the unemployment rate will be released Tuesday at 10 a.m. followed by the central bank of Turkey's survey of expectations on Friday. Both releases should not change market sentiment.Any major move in Turkish markets is not expected this week, unless the current slide in the U.S. stock market continues and spreads to foreign markets, although early indications of improvement in retail sales numbers should change the direction of these markets.In regional news, the developments in Eastern Ukraine, although worrisome, may move the price of oil and gold but should not negatively affect Turkish markets unless Russia's military moves in to support pro-Russian forces in their continued dispute with the government in Kiev. This would lead to a spike in oil prices, which would increase Turkish production costs, upsetting investor sentiment.
Last Update: April 15, 2014 02:01