Markets and municipal elections


As municipal elections draw nearer, markets are stuck in a trading pattern, searching for some indication as to which party will garner city halls across the country. The release of new economic data is being taken in stride as investors dissect polling data - meticulously searching for an indication of decided races. Despite this focus on the election, geopolitical events and remaining key financial data may sway markets before the March 30 vote.Last week, investors rewarded Istanbul markets with a 2 percent pop with the release of positive data from the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT). The week began with strong industrial production numbers coming in much better than expected and continued, as the CBT indicated an improvement in the current account deficit numbers from -$8.32 billion to -$4.88 billion. Markets appeared to ignore the release of any new wiretapped calls between government officials, as the release of many last week went largely unnoticed and had relatively little substance.It appears investors are experiencing "wiretap whiplash," and only tapes of yet unimaginable magnitudes, those that could sway votes, would cause a dent in financial markets.The completion of the Crimean referendum and the apparent victory of the Russian Federation was either already priced in or greeted positively across global markets, as Europe was up over 1 percent across the board at midday Monday, and Russian equity markets were up over 3.5 percent.Despite EU and U.S. assurances that they would not recognize the breakaway region's wish to join the Russian Federation and Russia's probable annexation of Crimea, it appears that the EU and the U.S. have little recourse. The EU is heavily dependent on Russian natural resources, and the Russian economy has become so much a part of the global economy that any sanctions on Russia would cause global harm. With a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council, the U.N. will be unable to take any action against Russia, and short of a few slaps on the wrist, the United States will be reluctant to scare away Russian investments in U.S. equity and real-estate markets.On Friday, John McLaughlin, the preeminent U.S. political commentator, said during a broadcast of the McLaughlin Group (broadcast on U.S. public television), "I predict that the U.S., the U.K. and EU sanctions on Russian oligarchs will burst the bubble of the high-end real estate markets in London, Miami, Aspen and other chic cities; we're talking about bottoms falling out of the sales ... to oligarchs who thought they were investing their money in safe havens."This comment is an indication of how U.S. political elites are keenly aware of the effect Russian money has had on their economies. If the markets of the developed world cannot be seen as safehavens by the Russians and others, then spooking away these investors would have catastrophic effects on these economies.This week no major economic data is being released; however, the Monetary Policy Committee of the CBT meets on Tuesday to set overnight lending and borrowing rates currently set at 12 percent and 8 percent respectively. Markets are predicting both rates will stay at their current levels, as indexes seem to have stabilized and debt markets have sufficient demand. Banu Kıvcı Tokalı, the head economist of Halk Yatırım, commented: "We expect the central bank to keep policy rates, as well as other policy instruments, intact in tomorrow's MPC meeting. We think the bank sees January's 'front loaded and bold rate hike' as enough to counterbalance the risks over global fluctuations, as well as domestic inflation dynamics. It will be of interest whether the bank hints about a change in its stance over domestic demand."If rates are not revised as she predicts, Turkish markets will be focused on how the U.S. and the EU react to the Crimean vote to break away from Ukraine and on developments that may affect the upcoming municipal elections.