Putin’s visit and the new energy chessboard

Welcome to the new world of multi-polarity, emerging powers with rapidly shifting alliances, cooperation in niche areas and effective maneuvers to sideline systemic conflicts. The historic visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Ankara signified these global trends and highlighted Turkey's crafty diplomatic skills to forge a strategic alliance with Russia on energy issues despite volatile geostrategic conditions. Following the quagmire in Ukraine, imposition of economic sanctions by the EU and the sharp fall in global oil prices, Russia has been under intense pressure to break the chain of international isolation by finding new partners and boost its economy. The rapid devaluation of the ruble despite major efforts of the central bank and the prospects of the Russian economy entering into recession next year considerably increased the stakes for Putin, a well-known geostrategic chess player. Following the previous $400 billion natural gas deal with China, Putin made his second grandiose and surprising move in Ankara by declaring that Gazprom will scrap the construction of the South Stream project to Southern Europe via Bulgaria and instead will build a 63-billion-cubic-meter natural gas pipeline to Turkey underneath the Black Sea. Turkey and Russia also signed a memorandum of understanding for the construction of an energy hub on the Turkey-Greece border to store the 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas to be carried to Europe if economic conditions are viable. This was all big and surprising news for the global energy sector.

As far as the trajectory of Turkish-Russian relations is concerned, the critical decision for long-term energy cooperation through the proposed pipeline constitutes a real watershed. So far, Turkey has engaged in similar attempts for strategic energy cooperation through Baku, Tbilisi, Ceyhan and the ongoing Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) projects, but replacing Ukraine as the main route to transport Russian gas to Europe will carry Turkey's geo-economic significance to a whole new level. The decision also shows Turkey's coming of age as an emerging power and the independent policy of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to follow national interests and galvanize existing relations with Russia on energy despite pressures coming from the EU, the U.S. and NATO. Currently, Turkey imports around 60 percent of its natural gas from Russia and constitutes the second largest market for Russian gas after Germany. The fact that the new major pipeline that will replace South Stream will go through Turkey means that Ankara will be an active partner for Moscow in the conduct of energy diplomacy with Europe. Despite being a country seeking accession to the EU, the fact that Turkey is not an EU member makes all this energy diplomacy possible, a luxury not enjoyed by Bulgaria, which was pressured to stop the construction of South Stream despite $500 million of potential annual revenue from the project.

Turkish-Russian relations perfectly exemplify emerging power politics in the increasingly sophisticated global system. Despite stark political differences about the removal of President Bashar Assad in Syria and the preservation of territorial integrity in Ukraine, Turkey and Russia are brought together by their existential needs to import and export vitally important energy resources. Turkey first received a price discount of between 6 percent and 15 percent and an additional 3 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually out of this cooperation beyond existing agreements. Beside the natural gas issue, Turkey is keen to expand its food exports to Russia by taking advantage of Russia's retaliatory sanctions against the EU and increase its overall economic presence in the country to boost growth at home. Moreover, the Russian state-run ROSATOM nuclear energy corporation is constructing Turkey's first nuclear plant in Akkuyu in Mersin province and a positive environmental impact assessment report was announced during Putin's visit as a goodwill gesture. The growing rift between the West and Russia provides new windows of opportunity for Turkey's emerging power politics, and the pragmatic leadership in Turkey is keen to take advantage of it.