Possible results of the AK Party's three-term rule
Last week, the AK Party's executive board decided not to amend Article 132 of the internal regulation. The article stipulates: "Mayors and Parliament members who were formerly nominated and elected from the listings of the AK Party may be elected for no more than three terms in office unless breaking for a term."The AK Party claims that this is an invaluable ethical code that is offered to multiparty regimes. It is not difficult to guess that this will have a number of results. The first of these results is that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will not run as a candidate in the 2015 parliamentary elections. According to Article 109 of the Turkish constitution, the prime minister is elected from among deputies by the president. The ministers do not have to be deputies. However, in line with the entailments of the parliamentary system, it is a constitutional obligation for the prime minister to participate in the elections and be elected by the public. This means we will not see Erdoğan as prime minister in the electoral period between 2015 and 2019.However, in theory it is possible that Erdoğan may take part in politics externally as a minister, vice prime minister, vice chairman or consultant of the AK Party after 2015. Or he may opt out from active politics completely for a term and head to a university or think tank.The second result is Erdoğan's candidacy for presidential elections, as is expected by the majority of the public. As well as in the executive board, this opinion was adopted predominantly in the other workshops of the party. It seems that the electorate also has a tendency toward this result. The decision as to whether he will be a candidate for the presidency certainly belongs to Erdoğan himself. No legal power either in the party or in Turkey can impose on him the decision to become president, rather it is contingent upon his 12-year ruling success and his determination to fight against the country's antidemocratic and destructive factors, including military tutelage, the Gezi protests and the Dec. 17 operation. Along with the popular support he has gained, his political success adds to his legitimacy.The third result is that more than 70 senior deputies of the AK Party will remain outside the Parliament after 2015, in accordance with the three-term rule. Certainly, during the party's 12-year rule, these deputies gained the ultimate internal and international political experience in Turkey's history. When the AK Party's political vision is mentioned, undoubtedly we are underlining the success stories of these deputies. It should not be forgotten that they have constituted the first civilian power staff in the history of the Turkish Republic. In previous periods, the Parliament and government were not in power in practical terms and the responsibility of the country's basic politics and situations of crisis were mainly taken over by military and civil bureaucracy.The AK Party will definitely utilize this opportunity of the three-term rule in order to rejuvenate its staff and offer new perspectives for Turkish politics. Political parties are at the same time political cults, which is possible when the parties integrate their experience with dynamism. It is not realistic to expect that the party will put aside its memory and experience. That is why the three-term rule has a deterministic role in the presidential elections as well as paving the way for reconstruction in the party.