Al-Bab and Turkey's new position

The war in our immediate vicinity that will gradually reorganize the whole world's power balance is nearing its most critical stage. Syria is a picture that shows who is on Syrian territory and who will later discuss how the region must be. Therefore, those who ask Turkey, "What are you doing in al-Bab?" actually mean, "We must consent to the big states sharing power in a way that is unfavorable to Turkey in the Middle East." Moreover, they also mean, "We must not take precautions even if Daesh bombs us," and "The Democratic Union Party (PYD) can create a contagious line on Turkey's border and threaten the country's territorial integrity."

Certainly, it is hurting some that Turkey is increasingly intensifying its Euphrates Shield offensive. However, were it not for the operation, we would be compulsorily giving into the aforementioned scenarios. Turkey attaches great importance to the operation in al-Bab, the second largest Daesh-controlled town after Raqqa. It is just 30 kilometers from the Turkish border and Sunni Arabs constitute the majority of the population in the town, which has been controlled by the Daesh terrorist organization since November 2013. If Turkey was not involved in the equitation, the People's Protection Units (YPG), which announced that it would march toward al-Bab after Manbij, would endeavor to seize the town and make the threat to Turkey much greater.

Al-Bab is located on many connecting routes. It is important to control the town in order to prevent unification of the Afrin and Kobani cantons. However, the al-Bab operation also includes risks given that Daesh, the most brutal organization in the world, can carry out all kinds of attacks in centers where it has strength. The reason for the increase in developments is that the town has yet to be reached. Al-Bab and Raqqa are Daesh's centers, hence, it continues to attack and protect its "territory" instead of withdrawing like it did in Jarablus. According to experts, however, the group may withdraw to Raqqa if it sees that it cannot cope with the power of the forces opposing it there.

Of course, while commenting on the situation, we should keep in mind that there are still tens of thousands of civilians in al-Bab. In contrast to Jarablus, which had been evacuated before the operation, Daesh might use its own people as a shield, and these people are the largest ammunition the group possesses.

On the other hand, although the Syrian regime's seizure of Aleppo challenges Turkey in terms of the position it has adopted since the beginning of the conflict, the balance of power has greatly changed in Syria. The U.S. reversed the fate of the war by completely withdrawing from the game. Currently, Turkey is developing a brilliant policy to create the picture it desires, and developments in Aleppo might strengthen Turkey's hand in Operation Euphrates Shield. According to Oytun Orhan, a specialist at the Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies (ORSAM), as the area controlled by the operation expands, Turkey and the Free Syrian Army's (FSA) requirement for warriors will increase. After a while, a dual structure might emerge in the opposition elements which evacuated Aleppo: Radical groups based in Idlib and FSA elements. Therefore, a moderate opposition under Turkey's protection against radical opposition elements might emerge in a gradual and clear way now.