Saudi Arabia has formed a coalition of 34 predominantly Muslim nations to coordinate a fight against terror. Announcing the coalition, Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman said the nations would work to fight "any terrorist organization, not just DAESH" in countries like Iraq, Syria, Libya or Egypt. That is an important statement, as there is a lot of confusion in the world over which groups are terrorist organizations and which ones are not. Meanwhile, Adel al-Jubeir, Saudi Arabia's foreign minister, said "nothing is off the table," when he was asked if the alliance would deploy troops on the ground.
While the 34 Muslim states include countries like Jordan, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Palestine, Libya, Malaysia and Yemen, many African countries, Iran, Iraq and Syria, and Afghanistan are not in the coalition. Iran has the largest Shia population, while post-Saddam Iraqi governments are dominated by Shias and the Syrian regime in Damascus is dominated by Alawites, which is a Shia creed. In the last few years, Iran has been criticized for taking a Shia line in order to dominate the region, while the above-mentioned governments work in coordination or closer with Iran, as well as Russia, to keep and increase their power. The new alliance has made the Sunni line apparent, excluding the Iran-led Shia-dominated governments.
But in the meantime, the announcement raises questions regarding how countries like Egypt and Turkey will work together against terror while the relations between the two are still frosty over Ankara's harsh stance on the military coup and the Egyptian army's targeting of the Muslim Brotherhood in 2013. The disagreements between coalition-forming countries like the UAE and Qatar have spread doubt that the coalition can only exist on paper or be divided. For example, the Saudi, Turkish and Qatari governments have been adamantly opposed to Russian intervention in Syria, while the UAE, Egypt and Jordan have been optimistic about Russia's military moves.
On the other hand, considering the fact that the U.S. military has been the primary force leading the campaign against DAESH since September 2014, the coalitions do not require joint operations. Almost 80 percent of the airstrikes by the U.S.-led anti-DAESH coalition have been carried out by the U.S., with some support from France, the U.K., Canada and Australia, while 10 other countries - Denmark, Belgium, and some Arab countries - haven't done much so far. It is hard to argue that anti-terror coalitions have achieved much until now. More interestingly, they have become active parts of the conflicts in the Middle East, changing the dynamics of an almost four-year-long regional proxy war.
After the Russian military intervention in the Syrian civil war, which began on Sept. 30, DAESH has become a practical tool to use as a screen to cover real intentions. Russia has been targeting Syrian opposition fighters who have nothing to do with DAESH, while also fighting the notorious group as well as Assad regime forces. The statistics show that Assad's real fight is not with DAESH; in fact Assad and DAESH have subtle understandings against the common enemy - the opposition forces - according to reports.
When Russia started to carry out airstrikes, Russia, Iran, Iraq and Syria set up a joint information center in Baghdad to collect, process and analyze data about the situation in the Middle East at the end of September this year, claiming that the primary goal was fighting DAESH. The move was an explicit coordination of another anti-DAESH coalition, which is led by the Russians. The de facto coalition has already been in charge for a while, but as of this fall, Russia has been actively bombarding from the air while Iran-led ground forces have been controlling the ground forces in Iraq and Syria.
So, we are looking to hear more about what the new Saudi-led anti-terror coalition will do, but it's hard to expect a big move soon in the northern parts of the Middle East from Gulf allies, since they are already involved in a war against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. If the cease-fire in Yemen can be kept alive, we can imagine Saudi-led warplanes coming to join the fight in Syria. Since the Russia-led coalition won't want them to be more involved, we shouldn't be given false hopes for a permanent cease-fire in Yemen. However, that doesn't mean that the Saudis, and some of their allies, will let the Russian-led coalition change the balance of the region. There may be some disagreements, some split ups, and some nations deciding to leave the theater, but the new anti-terror coalition will still be part of the game, one way or another.
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