Potential 'reverse corner' in presidential election
According to public opinion surveys, the most likely candidate for presidency is Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The latest public opinion survey conducted by Optimar Research Company reveals that Erdoğan is at the top of the list and is followed by current President Abdullah Gül. The popularity of these two political figures in the eyes of the public may cause surprises and even "reverse corner" developments, to use Erdoğan's words. There are other members of the AK Party whose names are also mentioned for the presidency, but they are few in number. Therefore, when it comes to the candidacy for presidency, these two prominent actors of the AK Party come to the minds of many. On the other hand, the situation of the opposition parties is quite underwhelming. Opposition leaders are yet to recover from the electoral failure they experienced in the March 30 local elections. Let alone presenting common candidates, they face difficulty even in determining a single candidate of their own. As usual, this situation of the opposition is the primary concern for Turkish domestic politics. According to the survey, former Chief of the General Staff İlker Başbuğ comes top of the list with a percentage of 28.8 among potential candidates of the Republican People's Party (CHP). He is followed by the CHP's present leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, with 13 percent. Even Mansur Yavaş, who ran as candidate for the Ankara Metropolitan Municipality in the March 30 local elections from CHP, scored 7.5 percent while former leader of the CHP Deniz Baykal received only 5.9. From what I know, the CHP's most suitable candidate, who has launched some rightist initiatives recently, is former president Süleyman Demirel. He will definitely attract more interest than Mehmet Haberal. The strongest name for the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) is its incumbent leader Devlet Bahçeli with 25.4 points. Interestingly enough, the second person who may be proposed for candidacy from the MHP is İlker Başbuğ, who holds the first place on the CHP's list. This may be an indicator of their common candidate. When this picture is examined carefully, it is obvious that the AK Party is the strongest and most provident party for the August presidential election. However, the AK Party is making its plans with meticulous attention as the three-term rule is still underway, which means that the party will introduce new faces. And how these new faces will affect the election results is yet to be seen. The most thorough plan is on the speculation that if Erdoğan runs in the presidential election and is elected, who will lead the party and who will be the next prime minister? Until the June 2015 general elections, there is a transitional period of 10 months. Who will be prime minister and chairman of the AK Party in this period? Erdoğan clearly underscored that these two structures will not be divided. As president Abdullah Gül is not a deputy, he does not have the opportunity to be elected party president. As the two structures will not be separated, the AK Party will not have a chairman for a 10-month period. Or some other member of the AK Party could be prime minister and chairman of the party during this period, because the government needs to be formed within 45 days of the general elections. Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu is mentioned in the lobbies, however it can be someone else too. If we look at the course of events, there is not a another alternative for the AK Party under the current circumstances. The general staff and grassroots of the party demand Erdoğan's presidency and they are concentrated on his promotion to the presidential palace. Similar results are expected to occur in a consultation meeting to be held in Afyon at the weekend with the participation of deputies and executives. At this point, what did Erdoğan mean by "reverse corner"? He may have meant all of the following: The three-term rule may be amended to enable Erdoğan to continue as prime minister for another term; Gül may continue as president; some other names such as Beşir Atalay may be proposed for candidacy; Erdoğan and Gül may join forces for the 2015 elections just as they did in the 2002 elections, and so on. It may seem difficult but even 24 hours in politics is a long period in which many things can change rapidly. We will all have to wait and see.