What changes will Donald Trump bring to the Middle East?


As mentioned in previous columns, we have dubbed the policies of the Obama administration on the Middle East as "hesitant" and "incompetent." Under the Obama administration, U.S. interests in the Middle East went unguarded and the region quickly destabilized, symptomatic of an inept and wavering foreign policy which did nothing more than passively enable the rise of terrorist organizations and social chaos in the Arab world.

Traditional U.S. policy on the Middle East has always relied on Turkey, a key NATO ally, along with Saudi Arabia, Israel and Egypt. However, the Obama administration effectively withdrew from the Sunni axis, resulting in the consequential rise of Iranian power in the Middle East, as we now see with the presence of unlawful, illegal militias. Iran uses these militias to penetrate Iraq, Syria and even Yemen, in direct defiance of the conventional state apparatus. One of the most fundamental characteristics of a militia is its lack of accountability as an aggressive power for its use of avant-garde forms of military force. Thus, Iran relies on this unlawful method for political penetration and, in so doing, has come to resemble Daesh.

The constant state of war in the Middle East presents no benefit to any state or country. As the world becomes more and more interdependent, any conflict or war in any region automatically creates repercussions for other countries around the world, either directly or indirectly. Even the ignition of the smallest spark of conflict in the world's most remote regions could threaten the world as a whole. Yet, the people of the Middle East have serious doubts regarding the honesty and sincerity of the infamous, media-propagated "War on Terror." They wonder whether those terrorist organizations such as al-Qaeda, Daesh or Iran's Shiite militia were developed in a sociologically natural way or if they were supported by international intelligence organizations. Regardless, the U.S., NATO and all the great powers of the world should aim to consolidate stability in the Middle East.

Now, a Republican president shall rule the U.S. and although the Republicans are known to be more rigid in their pursuit of principles than Democrats, Donald Trump's new methods seem to be obvious and sincere, at the very least. Such sincerity becomes all the more important if we consider Barack Obama's dubious behavior in foreign policy, which has strengthened Russia and Iran in the Middle East and created an intergovernmental conflict in Washington.

In this respect, the Syrian crisis emerges as an open failure of Obama's feet-dragging approach to foreign policy. Now, as Trump prepares to take over the Oval Office, it is precisely the right time for Washington to revise its foreign policies on Turkey, the EU and Saudi Arabia. In particular, Obama's foreign policy has seriously harmed Turkish-American relations, creating serious issues of contention for Turkey and the U.S., including the issue of handing over the leader of the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ). I believe that Trump's fresh administration will revitalize the Turkish-American alliance by relying on a rightful ground and resolving the subjects of disagreement one by one. Yet, the U.S. president should consider the fact that the deeply rooted problems of those relations might sabotage such revitalization.

Within the power struggle of international relations, states seem to have two opposing options to choose from. On the one hand, states could abuse their sources of power to create chaos and instability in a particular region of the world. However, as we mentioned before, instability and chaos in a specific region has the capacity to spread towards other parts of the world. On the other hand, states could struggle to preserve justice and stability through which their own national interests would be ensured. Not only for humanity and economic interdependence but also for political security and stability, the latter option is much more reasonable for great powers.

Thus, the U.S. should focus on bringing not chaos but stability and the rule of law to the Middle East.

As the U.S. embarks on a new, albeit unconventional, "Trump era" in politics, it must focus on bringing stability and the rule of law to the Middle East, moving the world away from the post-Cold War era which brought only the dysfunctional incompetencies of international organizations like the U.N., which rotted thanks to the foreign policies of both George W. Bush and Obama. The new president and his administration have serious challenges ahead of them.