Turkey's dominant party

The AK Party represents a unique political experiment in Turkey's history. For the first time in the nation's history, a political party has not only won nine consecutive elections to remain in power for 12 straight years, but also completed a leadership change with no problems.

Political scientists describe political parties that succeed in assuming the responsibility of a historic mission in their respective countries and consequently control political power over extended periods of time as "dominant parties." Considering that tensions between state and society, bureaucrats and politicians, and guardianship and democracy constitute the essence of Turkish politics, it would be fair to claim that the country serves as a fertile ground for dominant parties. As a matter of fact, a number of center-right parties that were popular enough to form single-party governments over the years certainly had the potential to evolve into dominant parties. Yet the structural issues associated with the guardianship regime prevented these parties from reaching their full potential.

In most cases, military coups and Constitutional Court rulings brought these political experiments to an abrupt end and therefore did not allow them to remain active. Another common problem was that the guardianship regime imposed arbitrary boundaries on civilian politics: Unable to meet society's expectations due to these limitations, political parties gradually lost touch with their base. It was these two structural issues that created a deadlock between popular demands and political representation which lasted for decades. When politicians dared to side with the people, the guardianship effectively hindered their efforts. Meanwhile, political parties that opted for populist policies rather than addressing society's demands failed to become productive and could not mobilize lasting popular support. These structural impediments on political activity, which once ensured that potential dominant parties did not bloom, ironically helped the AK Party consolidate its position as a dominant party. Over the years, the AK Party remained relevant by pledging to eliminate the guardianship regime that severed the ties of its predecessors with the people and rendered them ineffective. At the same time, the party formed genuine bonds with its base to tackle century-old political and economic problems. Building its notion of politics around the core mission of bridging the gap between popular demands and political representation, the AK Party remains popular due to its ability to make progress on this front.

Given the current state of Turkish politics, it would appear that the AK Party has not completed its mission and the opposition has certainly not become any stronger. Today, the party's self-professed goal of building the new Turkey secures the support of millions of voters. The opposition's reluctance to lend support to this agenda, in turn, eliminates their chances of challenging the ruling party. Meanwhile, efforts to build anti-AK Party coalitions have proved adverse effects for the opposition, as the 2010 constitutional referendum and the Aug. 10 presidential election established.

Surely enough, the greatest risk ahead for the AK Party could have been factionalism, conflict and political re-positioning following the charismatic leader's departure. As a matter of fact, over the past two years, the AK Party became the target of various attempts to trigger discontent among its ranks associated with major changes caused by the three-term limit and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's presidency. The party, however, seems to have survived particularly tumultuous waters thanks to its captain's navigation skills. Last month, Ahmet Davutoğlu replaced Erdoğan as chairman and prime minister with no visible objections. A series of public events over the past three weeks have also shown that AK Party executives and the party base welcomed the leadership change. Meanwhile, a recent opinion poll by ANAR, a major player in the business, projects that Davutoğlu's AK Party will receive 52 percent of the vote in the 2015 parliamentary elections. The above-mentioned developments suggest that the AK Party will consolidate its position as a dominant party in Turkish politics and remain in power for the foreseeable future considering that it will maintain its current approach and performance.