Not a crisis for the East, but an intensifying crisis for the West


The world's stock markets started the week with a huge plunge on Monday following a huge drop in Chinese stocks. China's manufacturing data has hit the lowest level since 2009. China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index dropped to 47.1 in the first three weeks of August, from 47.8 in July. This fall had already been expected by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) that launched devaluations. In this respect, the negative data coming from China cannot be interpreted as a new phase of the global crisis or a new crisis for Asia and developing countries. China's growth chart shows that the country's growth has fallen since 2009 and its contribution to world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has increased, which also means that China exports capital. This discrepancy occurred in 2012, since when China has decreased its purchase of the U.S. dollar and treasury bills with its foreign trade surpluses and exports capital instead. Furthermore, China pushed the prices of export-oriented goods up by abandoning low wages. The PBOC strove to make expensive export articles competitive by devaluating the yuan two weeks ago, however, it can be suggested that this devaluation actually aimed to make the yuan global, rather than boosting exports. Yi Gang, deputy governor of PBOC, said during a recent press conference on the yuan's situation that the devaluation of the yuan was important for its integration into the global system. He underlined that the fixed and rigid exchange rate system is not sustainable. It appears that this track change by China will rock developed countries rather than developing ones. For instance, the integration between the Chinese and German economies in recent years is very striking. In 2014, Germany exported 74.4 billion euros worth of goods to China and imported 79.7 billion euros worth of goods from the country. Germany's exports to China have soared by 20 times while its imports from the country have risen by 30 times since 1990. It is impossible for Germany's export-dependent industry, particularly the automotive industry, not to be affected by the fall in China's growth. It is unlikely that Western industries, especially Germany, will take advantage of the domestic demand that rises as wages in China increase in the long run. This is because Asian countries will replace the West in this period. As a result, the fall in the growth of China and other Asian countries cannot be interpreted as an expectation for a new developing countries crisis. In my view, the crisis in the EU and U.S. is intensifying. It is a major problem for southern Europe that the euro has started to gain value once again. The fact that Greece is heading toward early elections does not mean that Europe's debt issue has ended. According to a study published by the Germany-based Halle Institute for Economic Research, German finance capital burdened southern Europe, particularly Greece, with excessive debt and the return of this debt service is very explanatory. Germany has made 100 billion euros because of interest payments since 2010 and burdened Greece alone with a debt of 90 billion euros within this period. Greece uses a currency that is extremely valuable in the face of its economic efficiency. It is very inviting to import goods and borrow instead of producing. It imports what is produced in northern Europe on the cheap and have arms. When you hit the wall, those who set this trap for you will seize all your properties. This is exactly what has happened to Greece. The euro, which is increasing in value once again, will threaten Portugal and Spain, like Greece. Meanwhile, the latest developments and U.S. data show that it is highly unlikely that the U.S. Federal Reserve will hike interest rates this fall. The Fed's interest rate increase will rock the eurozone and the EU more than Asia and developing countries. Considering all this, we can put forth the following statements about the Turkish economy: We can make a certain evaluation of the Turkish economy after November as Turkey is heading toward snap elections. Let us take a look at the figures belonging to the end of June. Turkey's industrial production index increased by 2.4 percent when compared to the previous month and exports recover due to the exchange rate impact. Also, there are signs of recovery in strategic data such as the production of investment goods and direct investment. The import of investment goods surged by 7.1 percent in the second quarter of the year. These figures indicate that the Turkish economy will enter a stable and industry and export-based growth pace as of the early 2016 unless a significant delay occurs in the realization of necessary reforms and supportive investments. Soon, the energy lines of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) and a new trade cycle linked with China will come into effect. The energy stock market and new commercial transits will make Turkey a center that determines energy and basis commodity prices. No one should evaluate the Turkish economy through exchange rates. This kind of idea is either driven by ignorance or malevolence. In short, there is not a crisis for developing countries or eastern countries on the horizon but the West's crisis is intensifying.