The China reality


As the discussions about making the Chinese yuan a reserve currency prevails on the economic agenda, an intense volatility has arisen in the Chinese market. It would be a hyperbole to define the depreciation of $3.5 trillion in the shares being traded on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges as a new financial crisis originating from China. However, it is possible to argue that this is a balloon that has been punctured deliberately.President Xi Jinping's government played a major role in the formation of this balloon. It suspended initial public offerings in order to prevent sales fluctuation in the share market. It also loosened the rules of credit transactions and gave investors an opportunity to pledge their houses as collateral, enabling them to purchase shares with loans. The Central Bank of the Republic of China decided to reduce benchmark interest rates and required reserves for banks on June 27. Here, China's objective was to make up for its falling growth rate and to maintain the Chinese economy without allowing an interruption in its capital exports.Since 2012, China has been taking slow but firm steps toward a new growth strategy. This new period will have two basic characteristics: First, China will export intensively and as has already begun this. Second, it will place importance on domestic consumption, welfare and infrastructural investments that will enhance the welfare of its people. At the beginning of this period, its growth rate will drop, its currency will decrease further in value and its internal inflation rate will increase relatively. Certainly, this long-term strategy, along with the falling yuan, will prevent the export loss arising from the decline in global demand in the short term as well. Here, I would also like to point out that Prime Minister Shinzō Abe's government in Japan is switching to a similar economic policy these days. Since Abe came to power in late 2012, the Japanese yen has lost 55 percent of its value. Notice that when China saw double-digit growth figures, the yuan and yen were valuable currencies together. However, Japan's abandonment of traditional policies imposed by the West with the Abe administration and the plunge in the yen's value started to undermine China's competitive power that was solely based on cheap labor. Yet another development that shook China's exports was the tumble in the euro that returned it to the point it was at when it was launched. However, China did not sit back and watch while the euro was losing its value. It lowered interest rates and supported its industry to bolster exports. Moreover, with the Greek crisis, it pushed the world to discuss the yuan as a basic reserve currency.There are two major reasons why China cannot dispose of its dollar reserves as it announced at the beginning of the crisis: First, while switching to a new growth strategy, it does not want to render its dollar-denominated assets worthless by bringing down the dollar. Second, it does not want to lose its price competition advantage by making the yuan an unnecessarily valuable currency and without having a full knowledge of the system.It should be noted that the U.S Federal Reserve cannot launch an interest rate hike in a short time while the dollar is at its current level. The arguments that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates in 2015 are nothing but speculation. It is ignorant gossip to look at the Greek crisis and to narrate it as a new crisis being experienced by China and the developing countries. This is the crisis of the EU alone and China is still pulling the strings in the U.S.During last year's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting, Xi Jinping said that China would make $1.25 trillion-worth of foreign investments in the next decade. This implies that Chinese-originated capital exports will surge at least three times in the next 10 years. In addition, the heart of global finance will be displaced. Considering the fact that the New Silk Road will reach north European ports like Rotterdam Port through energy lines and high-speed railway lines passing through Turkey and the Mediterranean in the next 10 years, it is possible to suggest this period will bring about a great mobilization of human capital. And a period of intense qualified workforce mobilization will start between the West and East.According to the International Monetary Fund's data, as China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth falls as of 2001, its contribution to the world GDP rises, implying that China exports capital. As I noted above, this discrepancy occurred in 2012 when "the balance of terror" between China and the U.S. started to dissolve. China ceased to finance the U.S. (West) with its cheap labor-based growth and surpluses, and started to export capital. This has a historical implication: Asia's development is becoming globalized and the new dynamic that will determine the 21st century is emerging in a concrete way. The tumble in all basic commodity prices, from oil to copper, depends on this permanent trend. This reality will upset all balances and economies starting from Europe. This basic dynamic is already changing balances, overruling all theories and rapidly undermining institutions and the mentality that manages those institutions. This is why the crisis is not in China, but in the heart of Europe.