There is no single answer to the question of where we need to look to see the future path of the world economy. We cannot make decisions about the global economy just by looking at the U.S. Even though the U.S. is still the largest and the most determinative economy of the world, it can no longer have an impact on global economic trends on its own. The U.S. maintains great confusion about setting its own economic path, let alone determining the world economy. Investors in the U.S. have been divided into two over the U.S. Federal Reserve's (aka the Fed) timing of the interest rate hike. On Tuesday, Jeffrey Gundlach, the co-founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, said that if the Fed launches an early interest rate hike, it might have to make a reverse move and cut interest rates again. Gundlach criticized the Fed for not learning lessons from the mistakes of global central banks, which increased interest rates and then had to cut them.Gundlach further noted that around $2 trillion worth of bonds globally have negative yields because of central bank purchases, and that the European Central Bank (ECB) policy will further deepen that - which I think is quite an accurate. Yet, another statement that complemented that of Gundlach's was made by Deutsche Bank AG strategists George Saravelos and Robin Winkler, both of whom argued that the EU might see greater capital outflows depending on the ECB's monetary expansion policy. They also remarked that an exodus of capital from Europe will flow to bond markets outside the region and that bond yields might drop further.Falling interest rates and the euro in the eurozone also reduce the supply of high-quality securities - which will have an impact on the depth of financial markets in the region. Currently, the euro is returning to the value it had in 2000 when it was born, and this is indisputably a new state of balance. However, this new balance is not a situation that the U.S. can endure for long. As Gundlach suggested, if the U.S. launches an early interest rate hike, it will have repeated the mistake that it made in 1995. With the Reverse Plaza Accord of 1995, the-then U.S. President Bill Clinton and then Fed Chair Alan Greenspan made a decision that led to consequences that were contrary to their own path and quite opposite of their strategic targets. Thus, they paved the way for the Bush administration by re-valuing the dollar against the Japanese yen and Deutsche mark.During the 10 years between 1995 and 2005, the U.S. achieved the highest added value of advanced technology in the world, but it failed to export it due to the overvalued dollar and relatively high interest rates. Throughout this period, the U.S. posted huge deficits and allowed the world to finance its debt by printing huge amount of money. The Bush administration based its policies on this understanding as well as the subsequent military aggression behind it.When the Fed revalued the dollar with the Reverse Plaza Accord in 1995, it allowed the U.S. to have deficits - in return for which it saved Japan and the EU, particularly Germany. When the U.S. aimed to close its deficits with a strong dollar and high interest rates, it failed to foresee that it would not be able to control dollar supply, which would emerge as toxic assets for mortgage companies in 2008.Now, think of what has happened in the world since 1995. Financial crises in developing countries, unending wars in the Middle East, the 9/11 attack, the U.S.'s invasion of Iraq, the euro period in the EU, the emergence of new Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the developments that led to the 2008 crisis and lastly, the 2008 crisis.Beyond any doubt, the primary factor that led to the 2008 crisis was the Reverse Plaza Accord, which saved Germany but brought the whole world to the brink of the abyss. Now, the appreciation of the dollar and an early interest rate hike will not relieve the EU as it alleviated the problems of the German economy in 1995. The rapid and unnecessary appreciation of the euro will foil the ECB's monetary expansion.In this period, central banks, particularly the ECB, should adopt new monetary policies that prioritize employment. However, the rapid and unnecessary appreciation of the dollar and interest rate hike expectations, which will perpetuate the dollar's appreciation, will not only shake developing countries as in the 1990s, but such a distorted situation will also exacerbate the EU's crisis and push the U.S. to a much deeper crisis than that of 2008 in the medium- and long-run. Thus, we may find ourselves in the most globally shocking and perhaps the last systemic crisis. In brief, the Fed's early interest rate hike means the repetition of the mistake made in 1995 and the emergence of a new crisis. As Greek philosopher Heraclitus says, "No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it is not the same river and he's not the same man."