Russia and Turkey: New horizons, new solutions

Russian President Vladimir Putin's top-level visit to Turkey on Dec. 1 was vital in diplomatic terms, as well as being crucial for the regional economy and politics. Before coming to Turkey, Putin had said he would visit the country to "seek new horizons" in bilateral relations. This top-level visit was not confined to current commercial and economic issues alone. When Putin's plane landed in Ankara, the price of Brent crude oil dropped below $70 per barrel, marking a five-year low. Could this be a message from the West in face of the fact that Putin seeks new horizons in Turkey? It may be coincidental that Brent crude oil hit $69 when Putin arrived in Ankara, however, a continuous and rapid decline in oil prices and its reflections on the Russian economy may impact popular support for Putin - a desirable possibility for the U.S. and the U.K. Putin sees this reality, which is why he said he came to Turkey to open up new horizons. Well, what could these new horizons be? Before elaborating on this question, as it is difficult to understand these new horizons without factoring in Iran, I must touch upon the recent remarks of Iranian
Economy Minister Ali Tayyeb-Nia made during his visit to Turkey the day before Putin. Tayyeb-Nia said, "We can eliminate the negative impacts of sanctions and can ease mutual trade if we use Turkish lira (TL) or Iranian rial (IRR), rather than the U.S. dollar in our mutual trade transactions.

In addition to this, our customs ministers have reached cooperation deals that will eliminate problems in transportation and dispatching. I hope all this will enable us to reach $30 billion in trade." Similarly, it is known that Putin will put forward a new trading system between Russia and Turkey, which will enable the two countries to use their own currencies in trade and will minimize customs legislation, in addition to new energy agreements as a part of this process.

Thus, in the near future, the trading cycle between Russia and Turkey, and between Iran and Turkey will approach a volume of around $200 billion, and this undoubtedly means a new Middle East and Caucasia. Apart from this, can the Western countries dissuade Putin from his course by imposing sanctions on Russian oligarchs and by reducing oil prices to $50? It is obviously a futile effort. Of course, the rapid decline in oil prices will quickly and seriously upset Russia's macroeconomic balance and public economy. However, the West overlooks two basic features of the Russian economy: the first is that unlike the West, Russia is self-sufficient in food and energy, and the ratio of Russia's public debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is low. The second, more important fact, is that Russia has a strong industrial infrastructure and information technology that it inherited from the Soviet Union. It is also a leading country in the export of nuclear technology. The issue of nuclear energy was one of the top items addressed during Putin's visit, with Russia undertaking the construction of one of the new nuclear power plants in Turkey.

Since 2010, Russia has been carrying out its Eurasia Union project within the framework of a new regional economic policy. Putin has embarked upon a new path to escape from the influence of oligarchs and neoliberal economic policies that transfers the country's resources abroad. This path brought the annexation of Crimea and the Ukrainian crisis to the world's attention. The Customs Union Agreement that Russia signed with Belarus and Kazakhstan as the base of the Eurasian Union is becoming more important now.

What will Turkey's response to Putin be, as he came to Turkey with an investment package of around $100 billion, saying that he is looking for new horizons in political terms as well? Turkey, undoubtedly, will respond to Putin's suggestions, and his approach toward the new period with multidimensional diplomacy. Turkey wants Russia to display a more flexible position on items of top priority such as the Syria crisis.

Furthermore, Russia and Turkey will welcome this new period by building a new regional economic policy. This will occur within the framework of mutual technology and market sharing in industry and energy. Turkey, which is aware of the significance of Putin's visit and considers his suggestions as a historic opportunity, will consider the options presented by Russia before relinquishing its aim of becoming an EU member. When placed together with China's "New Silk Road" strategy, we can see the new horizons.