Have you ever regarded the events that have been and will be going on in Iraq from a perspective through the course of 21st century? I think the argument that best summarizes the 20th century is as follows: The 20th century is the history of clashing nation-states and nation-states themselves.
Then, has this clash ended now, right in the first quarter of the 21st century? Of course not. However, is this century going to be the century of nation-states just as its predecessor was? We can say no to this question as well.
Globalization at its core does not mean the free flow of capital. The distinctive aspect of globalization, especially nowadays, is the fact that economies and the human capital cycle that are tied to these economies function in the global markets rather than national markets and these markets form their own higher legal entity. This points to, without a doubt, economic and political unions which go beyond nation-states.
The EU was established with the aim of building such a union, but now it is at the center of a crisis. Asian countries, especially ones that are catching up with developed economies, do not favor the old customs system at all and they do not need a process of industrialization and capital accumulation with tariff barriers, unlike Western economies once did. In fact, they want fast and limitless movement of human capital and export of capital and commodities without barriers.
Related to this, new customs union agreements and their markets arise. Countries that are strong in their regions (e.g. Russia) take this vision of a customs union further and are seeking a political union. The organization that was founded by Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan as a customs union in 2010, now is taking steps toward a political union under the name of the Eurasian Union. Despite all, it still seems the EU does not understand the fact that it will not survive if the political union is not ensured. Here, we have to see the events that started with the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) attacks in Iraq right from this perspective.
First of all, let this be pointed out, ISIS has nothing to do with the spirit of Islam. It is a paramilitary organization that uses the name of Islam just for its own activity. We already knew that the Iraq region has no territorial/ market integrity. But ISIS proved this concretely. Now this fact should be faced, especially by the West. As in the EU (although the EU has not succeeded it yet), the era of large political unions, beginning as economic entities, has started in the East. Currently, there are three major state traditions: Russian, Persian and Turkish.
These are modern-day axis-building states. That is to say, these states will go beyond the traditional nation-state integrity and create new economic and political unions in their regions. This is inevitable. If the West resists this, then we will spend the 21st century with fights as well, which would not be in favor of humanity at all. However, these states may follow a strategy to integrate among themselves and with other unions like the EU as well. It is very hard to predict how this will occur. It will merely be determined based on the economic and political performance of these states and they will show during this transition as a progress of history.
Now let us illustrate this reality over Turkey and through energy policies. Turkey signed an energy agreement with the Kurdish Regional Government in November 2013. For us, this agreement that will open historically and currently very important Northern Iraqi energy resources to global markets, was the first step of a Turkeycentered new union.
With this agreement, the pipeline can funnel 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year at first, and will reach up to 20 billion cubic meters. This amount is almost half of the annual natural gas consumption of Turkey. Apart from that, Northern Iraq's export of oil will be able to reach as much as 2 million barrels per day, and if a Northern Iraq oil pipeline connects with Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline beginning in December, it will reach 700,000 barrels and the second pipeline will be functioning when the first one starts working at full capacity.
In March 2013, the government passed new laws as part of the omnibus bill to regulate the energy market and the petroleum law. In those days, I stated that Ceyhan could be an energy pricing classification brand just as Nymex and Brent: "Currently, it is estimated that there is a 45 billion barrel reserve in Northern Iraq. The estimated natural gas reserve is 3.2 trillion cubic meters, which is large enough to fulfill Turkey's 300 years of consumption.
On the other hand, we should point out that these energy lines will join with the Baku-Caspian energy lines and go into Europe. In other words, let alone the south of Iraq, even the Northern Iraq, Azerbaijan and Caspian energy lines themselves can create a new Turkey, a new Middle East, and afterwards a whole new world." (Anadolu Agency, 06/03/2013)This also reads as the emergence of a new economy both in the forms of price and supply. In parallel with Ceyhan's engagement with both Caspian and Northern Iraqi resources, the energy stock exchange in Turkey will function and the monopoly in the energy pricing and the corresponding bubble will disappear.
Under these circumstances, it is out of the question that Turkey will be obliged to be part of this speculative market while bringing both the Northern Iraqi and the Caspian resources to the Mediterranean and taking them to the Europe through the Southern Gas Corridor. Here, the energy stock exchange is the project for this situation and it is the first step of determining the energy pricing in the Mediterranean region correctly. Today, the Genova market and the Brent crude oil prices are not determined based on supply and demand. With the agreement between Turkey and Northern Iraq, a new era is beginning in the Mediterranean region's energy pricing relying on supply.This beginning, for us, is not merely an economic and financial one. Politically too, it indicates a new era. The occupation of Mosul and the oil regions in Mesopotamia was based on the report of British Naval Forces' petroleum expert Admiral Edman Slade, dated 29/07/1918.
Right after the report was issued, British forces stepped into Mosul following the on Armistice of Mudros (30/10/1918). After this point, the events that unfolded with the Treaty of Lausanne, Ankara Agreement and Turkey's issue of obtaining a share from Iraq's oil income based on this agreement occurred in line with the interests of the U.K. (of the West). After the World War II, the U.S. got involved in the issue.
However, these resources have never been effectively extracted and commercialized in real terms, since Russian and continental European interests have been regarded as well.
The supply of energy has been carried out under the supervision of the West as a Russia and Saudi Arabia-based system while maintaining certain balances. For instance, not a single country in OPEC independent of the West, including Iran, has been decisive. Iran did what the West desired as well, after 1979's revolution, and did not refurbish its refineries for competition. In fact, this was in favor of both Iran and the West. If Iran opted to open its economy, the country would open to the world and prosper. This would mean the end of the monopolistic bureaucratic mullah diktat based on tension. The West did not want these energy resources to surface in Iran, just as they did not in Iraq under Baath dictatorship.
On the other hand, the Soviet Union and the oligarchic dictatorship that emerged afterward prevented the globalization of Turkmenistan and especially Azerbaijan's Caspian resources. Nowadays, all these resources are being globalized, this is unavoidable. A new world is being born and as a matter of course the borders of this new world will not be the same with the old world's borders.
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