Daesh is testing the United States
Military operations continue both in Syria and in Iraq in order to eradicate Daesh, but we all know that this is not just about Daesh.
It is true that Daesh is a real threat. The terrorist group is indeed trying to elarge its zone of influence in Syria and Iraq. It is also clear, however, that the actions of Daesh are serving some other players' strategic objectives, as well.
Let's just remember what Daesh has accomplished up until now. First, the emergence of this radical group has helped Bashar Assad to remain in power. As a result, Russia reinforced its influence in the region. Because of the Russian threat, the United States had to get directly involved in the Syrian conflict, even though its initial policy was to stay behind while its local allies did the essential work.
In other words, with its presence and actions, Daesh has pulled two major powers, Russia and the U.S., into the Syrian and Iraqi theaters. In the meantime, Daesh has hit France several times, so Paris had no other choice but to beef up its military presence in the Middle East in order to join the fight against the radical terrorist group.
At a time when the U.S. and Russia seem to have engaged in a new Cold War in Eastern Europe, Daesh has forced them to act together in the Middle East.
Besides the "success" of bringing the two major powers to the region, Daesh has managed, first, to keep Turkey and Israel out of the Syrian equation; and two, to transform Iran into an acceptable player on the world scene.
In a sense, Daesh is a real game-changer. That's why I think the radical group's main objective was not to build an Islamist state in the Levant, but to show the world that such a risk exists. Those players who perceived it as a vital threat have thus got the excuse to intervene to the region. It was clear from the beginning that the U.S. and Russia would be the first ones to intervene; so if a bargain about changing the borders of Iraq and Syria is brought to the negotiation table, the U.S. and Russia would be the main negotiators. Moreover, their presence in the region had pushed Germany away from the Middle East; and kept Saudi Arabia, Israel and Turkey at a distance.
The problem was the fact that Turkey didn't accept being kept at a distance over such a vital issue as Syria and Iraq's future. So in order to compel Turkey to "retreat," the PKK and Daesh have launched a wave of terrorist attacks in Turkey. When this was proven to be not enough, a coup d'Etat was planned. But the latter failed, fortunately, and the elected government of Turkey remained in power. Hence it has become clear that Turkey will stay in the game.
Plans had to be revised, and the U.S. and Russia have started to say that they are not in favor of Iraq's or Syria's dismemberment. So they couldn't trust local armed groups anymore, and they needed regular armies' involvement.
Local groups like the Free Syrian Army may, of course, contribute to the fighting in Raqqa or Mosul, but the U.S will have the last word.
We just don't know yet which state will have the last word in which area. The governments in Damascus and Bagdad are awaiting instructions from Iran and Russia; while local players are more concerned about what Turkey, Israel and the U.S. will decide. Under these circumstances, it would be easier if the U.S. were trying to appease the tension between its regional allies.
The U.S. policy is still a Democratic Party policy; but Daesh, by its actions, is calling for a "Trump policy." Daesh also wants to deepen the conflict between the Western world and Russia, and to make sure that all American allies stick together. One wonders who is telling Daesh to act that way.
It is true that Daesh is a real threat. The terrorist group is indeed trying to elarge its zone of influence in Syria and Iraq. It is also clear, however, that the actions of Daesh are serving some other players' strategic objectives, as well.
Let's just remember what Daesh has accomplished up until now. First, the emergence of this radical group has helped Bashar Assad to remain in power. As a result, Russia reinforced its influence in the region. Because of the Russian threat, the United States had to get directly involved in the Syrian conflict, even though its initial policy was to stay behind while its local allies did the essential work.
In other words, with its presence and actions, Daesh has pulled two major powers, Russia and the U.S., into the Syrian and Iraqi theaters. In the meantime, Daesh has hit France several times, so Paris had no other choice but to beef up its military presence in the Middle East in order to join the fight against the radical terrorist group.
At a time when the U.S. and Russia seem to have engaged in a new Cold War in Eastern Europe, Daesh has forced them to act together in the Middle East.
Besides the "success" of bringing the two major powers to the region, Daesh has managed, first, to keep Turkey and Israel out of the Syrian equation; and two, to transform Iran into an acceptable player on the world scene.
In a sense, Daesh is a real game-changer. That's why I think the radical group's main objective was not to build an Islamist state in the Levant, but to show the world that such a risk exists. Those players who perceived it as a vital threat have thus got the excuse to intervene to the region. It was clear from the beginning that the U.S. and Russia would be the first ones to intervene; so if a bargain about changing the borders of Iraq and Syria is brought to the negotiation table, the U.S. and Russia would be the main negotiators. Moreover, their presence in the region had pushed Germany away from the Middle East; and kept Saudi Arabia, Israel and Turkey at a distance.
The problem was the fact that Turkey didn't accept being kept at a distance over such a vital issue as Syria and Iraq's future. So in order to compel Turkey to "retreat," the PKK and Daesh have launched a wave of terrorist attacks in Turkey. When this was proven to be not enough, a coup d'Etat was planned. But the latter failed, fortunately, and the elected government of Turkey remained in power. Hence it has become clear that Turkey will stay in the game.
Plans had to be revised, and the U.S. and Russia have started to say that they are not in favor of Iraq's or Syria's dismemberment. So they couldn't trust local armed groups anymore, and they needed regular armies' involvement.
Local groups like the Free Syrian Army may, of course, contribute to the fighting in Raqqa or Mosul, but the U.S will have the last word.
We just don't know yet which state will have the last word in which area. The governments in Damascus and Bagdad are awaiting instructions from Iran and Russia; while local players are more concerned about what Turkey, Israel and the U.S. will decide. Under these circumstances, it would be easier if the U.S. were trying to appease the tension between its regional allies.
The U.S. policy is still a Democratic Party policy; but Daesh, by its actions, is calling for a "Trump policy." Daesh also wants to deepen the conflict between the Western world and Russia, and to make sure that all American allies stick together. One wonders who is telling Daesh to act that way.