The number of commercial planes in service around the world is expected to double in the next 20 years, Boeing said Sunday, anticipating a slightly larger increase than its European rival Airbus.
The U.S. aircraft manufacturer slightly raised its annual 20-year forecast for new jetliner deliveries, propelled by the strength of the narrowbody market fueled by demand from low-cost carriers.
Boeing estimates 48,575 planes will be in service in 2042, compared with 24,500 last year. This will require producing, across all manufacturers combined, 42,595 planes – half to replace existing aircraft and the other half to account for growth.
North America will take 23% of these new planes, the Asia-Pacific region 22%, Eurasia 21% and China alone 20%.
The projections, published on the eve of the opening of the Bourget air show near Paris, align with ones Boeing made last year when it forecast a world fleet of 47,080 aircraft in 2041.
Boeing expects airlines will need to buy 42,595 jets from now until 2042, up from 41,170 planes in its previous 20-year forecast last year.
The latest projection is still lower than the 43,610 new jets that were predicted as part of the market outlook in 2021 when Russian aircraft demand was factored in.
On Wednesday, rival manufacturer Airbus said it anticipated a need for 40,850 new passenger and cargo planes by 2042, bringing the world fleet to a total of 46,560 aircraft.
Boeing expects that narrowbody jets like its 737 Max or the A320neo family made by Airbus will dominate aircraft deliveries, with 32,420 single-aisle jets delivered through 2042.
That demand will be driven by low-cost carriers, said Darren Hulst, Boeing's vice president of commercial marketing, during a briefing with reporters before the report's release.
Deliveries from now until 2042 are also expected to include 7,440 widebody planes, 1,810 regional jets and 925 freighters. About half of the new jet deliveries will replace older models, while the other half will grow airlines' fleets, Boeing predicts.
"The end of the recovery has played out largely as we've expected, with a few different nuances and dynamics," such as a reduction in demand for regional jets compared to last year as interest in narrowbody planes grows, Hulst said.
After the shock to air travel demand brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, the industry is "shifting from a recovery mindset back to the fundamentals that drive air travel," he noted.
Hulst pointed to the link between the propensity to travel and world gross domestic product (GDP), which he expected to grow substantially over the next two decades, bringing another 500 million people into the middle class and making them potential air passengers.
Boeing expects low-cost carriers to more than double in size over the next 20 years – substantial growth, but slower than the past 20 years when their combined fleet grew sixfold.
Demand for cargo planes should also remain strong, with Boeing predicting air cargo traffic growth to outstrip the overall increase in global trade.
The company also raised its industrywide passenger traffic forecast growth rate slightly from 3.8% to 4%. And while the air cargo market is taking "a little bit of a breather," the estimated 3% annual growth in trade over the next 20 years will provide a tail wind for future demand, Hulst said.
"I think we'll again see how resilient the demand for air cargo is because it's consistently around 3.5% to 4% growth," he said.
Although Chinese air traffic remained depressed in 2022, Hulst said Boeing remains "very bullish" on China.
