Russia’s refusal to approve any new vessels for the safe export of Ukraine’s grain through the Black Sea, unless their operators guarantee the transits will be done by May 18, "the expected date of ... closure," could result in the winding down of the existing deal as early as this week.

Russia has strongly signaled that it will not allow the Ukraine Black Sea export deal – agreed in July last year – to continue beyond May 18 because a list of demands to facilitate its grain and fertilizer exports has not been met.

According to an excerpt of a letter seen by Reuters, Russia said that "based on the expected date of the initiative’s closure (May 18)," any further registration of new vessels will only be "carried out after receiving guarantees from shipowners to complete their participation in the initiative" by May 18.

"It will make it possible to avoid commercial losses and prevent possible safety risks," warned Russia in the letter.

Under the deal, a Joint Coordination Centre (JCC) in Istanbul – made up of officials from Russia, Ukraine, Türkiye and the United Nations – agrees on the ships participating in the deal.

Those ships are then inspected by the JCC officials near Türkiye before traveling to Ukrainian Black Sea ports via a maritime humanitarian corridor to collect their cargo and return to Turkish waters for a final inspection.

Based on public data from the JCC, on average, the outbound inspection was 21 days after the inbound review in April.

It is unclear if Russia’s interpretation of "participation in the initiative" is that a ship needs to have completed its final inspection by May 18 or exited the maritime humanitarian corridor by May 18.

If a ship has to complete its final inspection by that date, Russia may not approve any new ships for transit under the deal from as early as next week.

High-stake meeting

Russia’s U.N. mission in New York referred a request for comment to Moscow. The letter was sent to the U.N. by Russia’s JCC officials on Wednesday. The U.N. declined to comment on the Russian letter.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is due to meet with U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in New York on Monday and will discuss the future of the Ukraine grain export deal.

Lavrov has said nothing has been done to address Russia’s concerns.

The U.N. and Türkiye brokered the deal to help tackle a global food crisis that U.N. officials said had been worsened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the deadliest war in Europe since World War II.

The deal has allowed Ukraine to export more than 27 million tons of grain from several Black Sea ports.

To help persuade Russia to allow Ukraine to resume Black Sea grain exports, a three-year pact was also struck in July in which the U.N. agreed to help Russia export food and fertilizer.

G-7 calls for extension

Meanwhile, the Group of Seven economic powers called on Sunday for the "extension, full implementation and expansion" of the grain deal, the group’s agriculture ministers said in a communique.

In the communique after a two-day meeting in Miyazaki, Japan, the G-7 agriculture ministers "recognized the importance" of the deal, saying: "We strongly support the extension, full implementation and expansion of (the Black Sea Grain Initiative) BSGI."

"We condemn Russia’s attempts to use food as a means of destabilization and as a tool of geopolitical coercion and reiterate our commitment to acting in solidarity and supporting those most affected by Russia’s weaponization of food," the communique said.

G-7 members "stand ready" to support the recovery and reconstruction of Ukraine, including by providing expertise in the de-mining of agricultural land and reconstruction of agricultural infrastructure, the document said.

Latvia releases Russian fertilizer

In a move that could please Russia or boost chances of extending the grain deal, Latvia has released the first batch of Russian fertilizer it seized last year to be shipped to Kenya by the U.N.’s World Food Programme (WFP).

Russia has cited the seizure as a key stumbling block to its continued participation in wartime pact.

On Saturday, a vessel left the port of Riga on Friday with part of the 200,000 tons of seized fertilizer, Latvia’s Foreign Ministry said.

A ministry spokesperson said several more vessels are due to transport the rest of the fertilizer, which was seized in March 2022.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry has repeatedly named fertilizers stuck in Baltic Sea ports as one of the key stumbling blocks to continuing the deal.

The Latvian government described the shipments as a "donation" that it facilitated as "support for the countries that have been affected by the food crisis triggered by Russia’s war on Ukraine."

Uralchem and Uralkali own most of the fertilizer seized in Latvia, according to market sources and Reuters see data.

The companies used to be controlled by Russian oligarch Dmitry Mazepin, who gave up control last year after the European Union sanctioned him in March 2022 as "a member of the closest circle of Vladimir Putin."

The Uralchem-Uralkali Group said in February it intended to donate more than 34,000 tons of fertilizer stored in Latvia to Kenya.