The Federal Reserve (Fed) is preparing to take action this week as surging prices for fuel, food and housing have sent U.S. inflation to the highest in four decades, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine has compounded the situation.
But the central bank's efforts to put out the inflation fires will be complicated by the prospect that war and wide-ranging sanctions imposed on Russia will disrupt trade flows and undermine the U.S. economic recovery.
The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold its two-day policy meeting this week, with an announcement likely on Wednesday when it is poised to begin raising the benchmark lending rate that was cut to zero at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020.
That would be the first in a series of rate hikes, but amid the rising uncertainty, some economists think policymakers may move less aggressively than previously expected as they weigh the competing forces on the economy.
"The Fed is being tugged in two different directions by the massive increase in energy prices that's taken place over the last few weeks," David Wilcox, a former senior advisor to three successive Fed chairs, told the Agence France-Presse (AFP).
While higher inflation justifies the tightening moves, "the reduction in purchasing power that households are experiencing ... would call for a more accommodative stance of policy, a more cautious approach," said Wilcox, now with the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Bloomberg Economics.
Markets are pricing in about six rate hikes this year, but Grant Thornton Chief Economist Diane Swonk expects seven, while Wells Fargo raised their forecast from five to six – which would still leave the policy rate below 2%.
Before Russia invaded Ukraine, some economists – and even some Fed officials – said the first move in tightening the cycle could be a half-point increase to send a strong signal to markets that the central bank was committed to keeping inflation from raging out of control.
But Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week declared his intention to call for a quarter-point increase – a stunningly direct comment from a central bank chief, who typically keeps their plans close to the vest.
Wilcox said he was "thunderstruck" by the statement, which tamped down speculation of a more aggressive move.
While Wilcox remains cautiously optimistic that inflation will come down, he stressed that the Fed will have to be "absolutely clear" that it will act as forcefully as necessary should price pressures accelerate.
And in the short term, economists warn that things will worsen before they get better.
"The disruptions we are seeing are adding fuel to a well-kindled inflation fire that goes well beyond the energy sector and could touch much more of our daily lives," Swonk said.
"The timing couldn't be worse for the Federal Reserve, which is already chasing inflation for the first time since the 1980s."
Supply chain snarls caused shortages of key products as the global economy was returning to normal from the pandemic, and while the increases initially were driven by cars and housing, energy prices have spiked as well, especially in the past month.
According to the Labor Department, consumer prices surged in February to a 7.9% annual growth rate, the hottest reading in 40 years.
Inflation was already haunting the economy before Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 and could further erode President Joe Biden's popularity.
"Just about everything that makes up inflation is going bonkers to the upside," Adam Sarhan of 50 Park Investment told AFP, adding he fears it's the kind of rapid increase that can lead to a recession.
While the market fully expects the central bank to raise the Fed funds target rate by 25 basis points at the conclusion of this week’s policy meeting, the inflation data suggested the FOMC could move “more aggressively” to curb consumer prices in the upcoming year, as promised by Powell last week.
With inflation nearly four times the U.S. central bank's 2% target, economists are expecting as many as seven rate hikes this year.
The IMF last week warned that the fallout from the war would slow global growth, but the U.S. economy entered the latest crisis in a strong position with low unemployment after expanding by 5.7% last year.
Last month's consumer price index (CPI) data did not fully capture the spike in oil prices following the war in Ukraine. As a result, prices shot up more than 30%, with global benchmark Brent hitting a 2008 high at $139 a barrel, before retreating to trade around $112 a barrel since then.
Washington and its allies have imposed harsh sanctions on Moscow, with Biden last week banning imports of Russian oil into the U.S. Russia is the world's second-largest crude oil exporter.
Biden on Thursday acknowledged the hardships Americans were facing from sky-rocketing prices but blamed Russian President Vladimir Putin's actions.
