A new phase has begun in the region with the collapse of Syria's Baath regime, prompting renewed focus on how Türkiye will define its energy security policies moving forward.
In this context, experts emphasized the significance of regional stability and energy geopolitics while highlighting Türkiye's pivotal role in the region's reconstruction efforts.
Kate Dourian, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, told Anadolu Agency (AA) that Türkiye could ultimately benefit from the overthrow of the Assad regime, noting, however, that this largely hinges on the ability of the new interim government in Damascus to stabilize the country.
Since the central government does not control Syria's leading oil and gas fields, Damascus has depended on Iran for fuel supplies. Dourian added that Iran won't be able to supply oil and its derivatives to Syria after the fall of the Assad regime.
Last year, Iran supplied Syria with around 80,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil, she recalled.
At the same time, Iran recently moved to curb local energy consumption amid the cold snap. Despite its vast natural gas and oil reserves, years of underinvestment and sanctions have left its energy sector ill-prepared for seasonal surges, leading to rolling blackouts and gas shortages.
"Türkiye could step in and provide fuel to Syria. Ankara's influence with the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which led the anti-regime forces in their march to Damascus, it will likely be involved in the reconstruction effort and have political sway with the new leadership," Dourian said.
Referencing international data, Dourian said that Syria produced around 383,000 barrels of oil and 8.9 million cubic meters (mcm) of natural gas per day before the outbreak of the 2011 uprising.
However, due to the ongoing internal turmoil, oil production – once at 171,000 bpd in 2012 – had plummeted to just 93,000 bpd by 2022. This sharp decline has left Syria heavily reliant on Iran for its energy needs.
Stating that hydrocarbon production had accounted for around a quarter of Syria's revenues before the civil war, Dourian emphasized that the region's energy output suffered a severe blow when Daesh, followed by the PKK/YPG terrorist organization, operating under the name Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), seized control of key oil fields.
Dourian also pointed out that Bashar Assad had granted Russia exclusive rights to revive Syria's oil and gas sectors. However, she noted that the deal has stalled due to sanctions by the United States.
"There is an opportunity for Turkish energy companies to step in and revive oil and gas production, which would generate revenues to help with the reconstruction effort," Dourian underlined.
"However, this will require a political settlement that is inclusive and a stable government that can negotiate with foreign partners, which will take time," she said.
Türkiye-based Middle East researcher Haydar Oruç told AA that Syria's importance in energy geopolitics stems more from its strategic location along key east-west and north-south energy corridors than from its own natural resources.
Highlighting Syria's central location, Oruç noted its growing strategic significance in various projects, such as the Arab Natural Gas Pipeline, which aims to transport Egyptian natural gas to Türkiye via Jordan, Lebanon and Syria, eventually reaching Europe.
Oruç remarked that Syria's critical position has remained underutilized due to the protracted civil war, adding that neighboring countries have been forced to seek alternative routes.
Emphasizing that Türkiye will continue to offer the same support to Syria's new administration as it has to the Syrian people over the past decade, Oruç stated that reconstruction efforts will begin swiftly once state institutions are restored.
He added that, in this context, steps will be taken to develop and integrate Syria's energy resources into the economy.
"This will open up opportunities for cooperation in exploring new resources, particularly in the extraction of energy in the Eastern Mediterranean," he said.
"It is crucial to remove Syrian energy resources from the control of terrorist organizations. Once this is accomplished, and if requested by the new Syrian administration, Türkiye stands ready to offer all possible support for Syria's reconstruction, including the enhancement of existing energy resources and the development of new ones," Oruç concluded.
