Türkiye, which is expected to surpass its current 2030 targets in wind and solar energy by a large margin, could set more ambitious goals in this area to accelerate its clean energy transition and strengthen its fight against climate change, according to a report on Monday.
International nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), Climate Analytics and the NewClimate Institute calculated the rate of increase needed in wind and solar energy in key countries to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).
In this context, they analyzed the required national wind and solar energy capacity in 11 countries that make up more than 70% of the world's current wind and solar energy.
The countries analyzed included Türkiye, China, the U.S., India, Australia, Brazil, Germany, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria and South Africa.
According to the findings regarding Türkiye, the country has significant potential to rapidly increase its wind and solar energy capacity, which stood at 22 gigawatts (GW) by the end of 2022.
Türkiye’s current renewable targets are to reach 33 GW of solar and 18 GW of wind by 2030, as of the National Energy Plan published in 2022.
However, under current policies and market conditions, the IEA estimates that solar capacity will reach 39 GW in 2028, up from 11 GW of solar in 2022. Meanwhile, wind capacity is projected to reach 18 GW in 2028, up from 11 GW in 2022.
Türkiye is, therefore, on track to overachieve its current wind and solar targets by a large margin.
According to the analysis, this indicates that Türkiye could set more ambitious goals for solar and wind energy to strengthen its clean energy transition and fight against climate change.
For the country to align with the target of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, its electricity generation from wind and solar energy would need to increase by three to four times by 2030 compared to 2022 levels. This would require wind and solar energy capacities to rise to 62 and 27 gigawatts, respectively, in this period.
If Türkiye achieves this capacity increase, it is estimated that the country could reach its national targets for 2035 five years early.
Climate Analytics Senior Climate and Energy Analyst Neil Grant, in his assessment of the analysis, said: "Türkiye’s current policy plans are in line with the 1.5-degree target and can easily speed up a bit more to reach the required pace. The country is in a great position to benefit from abundant renewable energy resources."
To meet global climate goals, wind and solar energy in the 11 countries, including Türkiye, need to grow fivefold by 2030 and eightfold by 2035 compared to the current rate.
In the short-term, wind energy plays a key role in these countries, while solar power is expected to become the main source of electricity by 2050, providing more than half of global electricity production.
China stands out as a key market in this area. China, which achieved its 2030 targets for wind and solar energy six years early and increased its installed capacity to 1.2 terawatts (TW), could potentially reach a capacity of 4.5 terawatts if it maintains its current pace.
India, meanwhile, needs to increase its wind and solar energy capacity fivefold to reach 600 gigawatts, although it is expected that the country may require more international financing.
In the U.S., to be in line with the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, wind and solar energy capacity needs to grow fivefold by 2030, reaching 1,400 gigawatts.
Regarding China’s capacity increase, Grant noted that emissions are nearing their peak with the record-breaking increase in renewable energy capacity in China. "However, to exceed this peak and reduce emissions at the speed required for the 1.5-degree target, China needs to surpass its own success and bring these resources online more rapidly."
Markus Hagemann, author of the report from the NewClimate Institute, also emphasized that the U.S. must fulfill its promises of a decarbonized electricity sector by 2035. He stated: "This goal is generally in line with the global temperature-limiting goals in the Paris Agreement. For the U.S., this means increasing wind and solar energy capacity nearly fivefold by 2030 to ensure fossil fuels can be completely phased out of electricity generation by 2035."
