Hoping to get to its first wins in two east German state elections slated for Sept. 1, Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is trying to pick up countryside votes by making opposition to renewable energy projects a centerpiece of its campaign.

It proposes tougher new planning rules on constructing turbines, imposing higher energy-storage requirements for renewable projects and rolling back rules requiring that set proportions of land be used for wind energy.

AfD candidates are also peppering their social media pages with posts about how renewable energy is driving up consumers’ energy bills.

The message is resonating with rural communities frustrated with the center-left federal government's push towards renewable energies and could boost the AfD in the elections in Thuringia and Saxony, where it is polling in first place on around 30%.

It is unlikely that the AfD will be able to form a government as other parties reject any coalition with it. But, given the size of its vote, the AfD could shift mainstream discourse on wind energy, as it has done with migration, slowing down the implementation of projects, pollsters and analysts say.

"We will immediately take general action to ensure that not many more wind turbines are built here in Saxony," said Jan Zwerg, the AfD energy policy spokesperson in Saxony.

The AfD could also push legislation against wind power from the opposition ranks, as it has already tried to do with the conservatives in Thuringia.

This could, in turn, jeopardize Germany's overall green energy transition goals as the eastern states are the ones offering the necessary space for the expansion of wind-power infrastructure due to their lower population density.

"The success of the energy transition will be decided in the east. However, it is precisely here that sensitive resistance has developed, which the AfD is increasingly mobilizing politically," said Matthias Diermeier, a researcher at the German economic institute IW Koeln.

Broader backlash

The growing opposition to wind energy in Thuringia and Saxony echoes a broader popular backlash in Germany and elsewhere in Europe against the costs of the transition to green energy amid an economic slowdown.

Nearly a third of the rural population in eastern Germany opposes wind power, compared to only 17.7% in rural western Germany, a study by IW Koeln Institute and TU Dresden University showed. Among AfD voters, the opposition is around 50%.

In Saxony, support for energy transition has dropped to 40% in 2023, down from 49% in 2021, a September survey by the state's environment and energy ministry showed.

In villages like Chemnitz-Euba, where a citizens' initiative is opposing the installation of two wind turbines out of concern that it will lower property values and spoil the landscape, residents are increasingly voting for the AfD.

"This is not about right or left. This is simply about a story that affects all of us," Frank Stuehmer, leader of the initiative, said at an information event that drew hundreds of concerned citizens. He would therefore be voting AfD for the first time.

The political mood spooks some investors, wary of drawn-out battles with citizen initiatives and district councils.

A spokesperson for a Saxony-based wind power developer, who asked to speak anonymously due to the sensitivity of the matter, told Reuters it now prioritizes projects based on how strong the AfD is polling in different regions.

In Saxony and Thuringia, wind power installations are already lagging, with the two states building a total of just 16 new turbines in 2023, out of 745 installed in all 16 German states, according to the country's wind power association.

Higher prices

In its Saxony election program, the AfD proposes stringent measures to curb the expansion of wind energy, including a rule requiring wind turbines to be placed at a distance from residential areas equivalent to 10 times their height.

The wind power association said imposing this distance regulation would severely restrict the construction of new systems, citing 41 projects with 882 turbines still pending approval in Saxony as of July this year.

The AfD also says renewable energy expansion is raising domestic energy prices in Saxony, an argument resonating with many. Extensions of transmission and distribution networks can lead to higher network fees, two energy markets experts said.

Adjusted for purchasing power, power and heating prices are already 22% higher in the east compared to western Germany, calculations by power prices portal Verivox show.

Even if the AfD is in opposition, it can still push in parliament to constrict wind power – especially as the likely fragmentation of the vote in the upcoming elections is expected to make forming stable governments tricky.

"They (AfD) have been working on (shifting the debate) for 10 years and we are seeing this growing resistance among the population. The fact that they are succeeding should definitely not be underestimated," said Diermeier.