Delegates at the United Nations climate talks in Dubai – COP28 – are left with less time left to decide how the world plans to curb planet-warming emissions and keep the worst of warming at bay, pushing up for urgency as new drafts were expected on crucial outcomes of the summit.
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres returned to the summit on Monday and said it was "time to go into overdrive to negotiate in good faith and rise to the challenge.” He said negotiators in particular must focus on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and climate justice.
He said the global stocktake – the part of talks that assesses where the world is at with its climate goals and how it can reach them – should "phase out all fossil fuels” to reach the goal of limiting the rise of global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) compared with pre-industrial times.
"We can’t keep kicking the can down the road,” Guterres said in brief remarks. "We are out of road and almost out of time.”
Nearby, about 15 silent protesters held out cards that spelled out "hold the line.”
Guterres suggested the potential of a two-track phase-down of fossil fuels between wealthy and poorer countries could be on the cards, but activists responded with skepticism of the plan.
Nnimmo Bassey, a longtime Nigerian environmental activist, said that the ultimate goal should be for "fossil fuels to be kept in the ground” as Indigenous communities around the world have often borne the cost of oil exploration.
"We can’t keep on running the tap while pretending we’re mopping the floor,” Bassey said. "We have to turn off the taps.”
Simon Stiell, the executive secretary of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, told journalists Monday morning that the "climate wolves” remained at the world’s doors as negotiations reached their climax at the summit.
"We do not have a minute to lose in this crucial final stretch and none of us have had much sleep,” Stiell said. He added that "the areas where options need to be negotiated have narrowed significantly,” in particular how to reduce planet-warming emissions and the "transition with the proper means of support to deliver it.”
When asked directly if it was a possibility that negotiators could leave Dubai without a deal, Stiell did not deny that could happen.
"One thing is for certain: I win, you lose is a recipe for collective failure,” he said.
Sticking points for the global stocktake are along familiar lines. Many countries, including small island states, European countries and Latin American nations, are calling for a phase-out of fossil fuels, responsible for most of the warming on Earth. But other nations want weaker language that will allow oil, gas and coal to keep burning in some way.
Alden Meyer, an analyst with climate think tank E3G, said Saudi Arabia was trying to mobilize the other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil cartel to object to any inclusion of fossil fuels in the text – which he said would violate the terms of the Paris climate accord.
"This could be a very long week,” he said.
Espen Barth Eide, the Foreign Minister of Norway, said: "All countries want ambition, but some countries have their priorities in one place and other countries another place. ... so this can still both end up as a very successful COP, and it can also be much less successful depending on where we find the final language.”
He said that more developing countries would support a fossil fuel phase-out "if that is coupled with a clear promise from developed countries that they will help overcome the burden.”
As of midday on Monday, delegates were still waiting on a new draft of the global stocktake.
But Barth Eide said: "I am much more concerned about having a good text than an early text. So if the hours' delay means that it will be better, I think that’s worth it.”
