Catastrophic earthquakes that ripped through Türkiye’s southeastern region last month have prompted authorities to look again at how the quake-prone nation might cope with a tremor in the country's densely populated, northwestern industrial heartland.
Istanbul, Türkiye’s biggest city with a population of around 16 million and the country’s commercial engine, lies near fault lines that crisscross the country. Two earthquakes three months apart killed nearly 20,000 in the northwest in 1999. Geologists say another could strike.
The magnitude 7.7 and 7.6 quakes on Feb. 6 killed more than 45,000 and led to the collapse or severe damage of over 200,000 buildings in 11 southeastern provinces, in what is described as the worst disaster in Türkiye’s modern history.
The quakes caused about $34 billion (TL 642.21 billion) in direct physical damage, the World Bank estimated on Monday, but total reconstruction and recovery costs could be twice as high.
The southeast region has a sizeable manufacturing sector, albeit smaller than Türkiye’s northwest.
A tremor on the scale of February’s quakes in Istanbul, one of the world’s megacities on the strategic Bosporus waterway, could wreak havoc and require more preparation.
A potential 7.5 magnitude quake in Istanbul would affect half of Türkiye’s national income, Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO) Chair Erdal Bahçivan said a week ago.
Bahçivan stressed that an inventory study is urgently needed to reveal the city’s resistance status of industrial facilities.
"This is (Türkiye’s) industrial center. Therefore, destruction of that magnitude here could have much graver consequences that could lead to the country’s destruction," said Buğra Gökçe, deputy secretary-general of the opposition-held Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB).
"The state should view this as a national security problem and should priorities and allocate resources here," said Gökçe, responsible for the municipality’s earthquake risk management.
On Tuesday, Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change Minister Murat Kurum said some 1.5 million residential units in Istanbul considered risky would be transferred to what he said were two reserve areas planned in the European and Anatolian sides of the city.
"We have completed our national spatial strategy plan, and we will take steps to strengthen our industrial areas against earthquakes with new logistics plans," Kurum said.
"We have to carry out the urban transformation process with an understanding of mobilization so that the same suffering does not happen again," he noted.
Kurum said President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan would announce essential projects in the coming days.
Over 40% of the GDP
Last month’s earthquakes and the issue of preparedness for a major one in the northwestern Marmara region around Istanbul are vital issues in the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections.
Erdoğan on Wednesday indicated that the vote would be held on May 14, sticking to his previous plans.
He has pledged a swift campaign and promised to rebuild more than 400,000 homes within the year.
"We will remove the debris; we will heal the wounds. We will improve on what was destroyed and present a better life for our people," he said.
Officials say 14 million people were affected by the quake, and millions have either left or have been evacuated from the quake-stricken region.
The Marmara region is home to 25 million people and accounts for over 40% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) as of 2021, according to figures from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).
"A 7.5 magnitude earthquake is predicted for Istanbul, which is among the risky cities in the world in terms of earthquakes ... Along with the surrounding provinces under threat, this disaster will affect half of Türkiye’s national income," ISO’s Bahçivan said.
In addition to its weight in the economy, he stressed that Istanbul is central to other provinces’ processes, from supply chains to finance.
"In this case, the magnitude of the devastating impact of the earthquake that could occur in Istanbul is also of critical importance for the future of our country," he added.
Rapid Urbanization
Istanbul hosts many factories producing cement, textiles, automotive items and oil. In addition, it is a transit channel for international trade with numerous commercial and passenger ports and the Istanbul straits linking the Black Sea and the Mediterranean.
Türkiye sits across several active fault lines, leaving it prone to large earthquakes. In addition, a branch of the North Anatolia Fault runs under the Marmara Sea, south of Istanbul.
Experts say attention needs to be focused again on Istanbul’s readiness for a major quake, a matter of public debate since the 1999 disaster.
Gökçe said preparation for an earthquake in or near Istanbul was not a task for a single governmental entity and required a nationwide effort.
"We need a mobilization by all the state institutions ... and have to transform policies and do this within the next five to six years," he noted.
Since 1999, Istanbul has undergone a rapid wave of urbanization, much of it under Erdoğan’s rule. In 2018, the government introduced a zoning amnesty across Türkiye to legalize unregistered construction work.
Erdoğan on Wednesday said a so-called "National Risk Shield" meeting would convene on Friday to review the country’s building stock that doesn’t comply with construction codes.
Last week, Justice Minister Bekir Bozdağ acknowledged Türkiye should no longer implement the amnesty and should review penalties for substandard construction.
Preparations for an earthquake hitting Istanbul should not be limited to evaluating and strengthening the buildings but also should expand to infrastructure work to secure the flow of energy and water, Gökçe said.
Since the quake in the southeast, the IBB has received more than 100,000 applications for building resilience assessments, causing the overloaded website to crash, he added.