As Syria is emerging from a 13-year civil war after the overthrow of longtime ruler Bashar Assad, thousands of refugees in Türkiye have already begun making their way home. But that brings questions about how industries will cope with losing a labor force that has been crucial in several sectors.
The repatriation of both registered and unregistered workers – estimated to total around 2 million – has sparked concerns in agriculture and livestock industries, while others in manufacturing, construction and textiles express optimism about adjusting to the change.
Assad fled to Russia on Sunday after opposition forces swept into the capital, Damascus, following a 12-day lightning offensive that marked one of the biggest turning points for the Middle East in generations.
Türkiye welcomed Syrian refugees with open arms in the early years of the Syrian civil war that broke out in 2011 – becoming host to the largest number of refugees in the world.
Assad's fall has sparked widespread joy among Türkiye’s 3 million Syrian refugees. Thousands have since flocked to border crossings, eagerly anticipating their return home.
Since fleeing the brutal Assad policies, millions of Syrians became integral to Türkiye’s economy, especially in textiles, manufacturing, auto maintenance, construction and agriculture, according to the International Labor Organization (ILO).
Last year alone, some 108,250 Syrians received work permits, according to the Labor and Social Security Ministry. However, with many working informally, the actual figure in the labor market is far greater, at about 2 million, according to industry officials, making their return a potential turning point.
For agriculture and livestock, where Syrians make up an estimated 20%-25% of the workforce, their departure raises concerns about labor shortages.
"Syrians are particularly active in seasonal jobs, irrigation and shepherding. Departures have begun. For instance, in Şanlıurfa, three members of an eight-person family returned yesterday. Once they establish their situation, they will likely bring their families along,” said Ahmet Eyyüpoğlu, a board member of the Turkish Union of Chambers of Agriculture.
Eyyüpoğlu says challenges are all but certain to appear as the harvest season approaches.
“We are certain to face issues in the agricultural sector. Problems will especially arise during the harvest period from April to May," he noted.
Despite these concerns, players in construction, textiles, and manufacturing appear confident.
Özen Kuzu, vice president of the Housing Developers and Investors Association (KONUTDER), thinks the construction industry would face minimal disruption, suggesting that Syrian workers have not been engaged in companies undertaking large, branded projects.
“Even in smaller firms, their numbers are negligible,” Kuzu said, pointing to his own team of 7,000 workers building over 10,000 homes in the southeastern region struck by last year's devastating earthquakes, with no Syrian employees among them.
"There won't be any issues in the construction sector," he claims.
Textile manufacturers, where Syrians have often worked in informal settings, are expected to see staffing issues, particularly in small workshops, but some see the shift as an opportunity to recalibrate.
“There is actually a surplus of workers in our sector,” said Ramazan Kaya, head of the Turkish Clothing Manufacturers Association (TGSD). “In fact, there were plans to lay off some workers starting from the new year. If Syrian workers leave, it might ease the pressure on employers.”
Zafer Kaplan, chairperson of the board at threadmaker Gama Iplik, does not believe Syrian workers will leave suddenly.
"Türkiye has a 10% unemployment rate. If all Syrians were to leave, it would account for 8% of the workforce. Unemployed people in our country could fill this gap. We need to work on integrating our people into the workforce," Kaplan said.
Kaplan also suggested a severance pay fund as a potential solution.
"With the fund, people wouldn't leave their jobs just to get severance pay, unemployment rates would decrease, and the state could gain about TL 25 billion ($720 million) annually," he said.
Syrians primarily work in provinces like Gaziantep, Şanlıurfa, Kahramanmaraş and Malatya. There were about 12,000 Syrians among the 430,000 registered workers in the organized industrial zones in Gaziantep, according to Adnan Ünverdi, chair of the Gaziantep Chamber of Industry.
“Just as they arrived gradually, their return will be the same. We do not expect all Syrians to return. Even if 70% leave, 30% will remain here,” Ünverdi said.
“The wheels were turning before they came and they will continue to turn when they leave.”
Manufacturers are leaning on technology and training to integrate more people, according to Ünverdi.
“We are investing in digitization in our factories. There might be a short-term problem during the transition, but we will solve it. May everyone be happy in their homeland," he added.
