Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro expects the country’s economy to have grown by more than 4% last year, following eight years of recession and rising prices, he said on Saturday.
Venezuela's central bank has not updated figures for the country's gross domestic product (GDP) since the third quarter of 2019, when the GDP contracted 26.8% versus the same period in 2018.
"After five years of the economic war of boycotts and blockades, Venezuela is back on track for economic growth," Maduro said during his annual address before the National Assembly.
He also forecast economic growth in the third quarter of last year at 7.6%, without explaining further.
Last year Venezuela's oil production doubled thanks to small oil services companies and supplies from Iran but that does not mean state oil company PDVSA will keep ramping up output, experts say.
Venezuela's commerce and services sectors have also enjoyed breathing space in recent years since the government decided to loosen economic controls in 2019 and allow greater use of foreign currency.
However, analysts say these measures have not guaranteed broad recovery across all sectors.
Last year the government scaled back spending in bolivars to increase monetary stability and control inflation. Even so, prices remain high and continue to hit the wallets of Venezuelan families.
Inflation in the crisis-wracked South American country remains the highest globally and prices continue to rise uncontrollably.
Venezuela ended 2021 with inflation of 686%, according to the central bank, meaning the end of a period of hyperinflation that began in 2017.
According to a widely accepted definition of hyperinflation from 1956 by late American economics professor Philip Cagan, it begins when monthly inflation rises by more than 50%.
To come out of it, a country needs to keep monthly inflation increases under 50% for an entire year.
However, what is clear, though, is that Venezuela's official inflation figures are heading in the right direction.
The country ended 2017 with 862% inflation before it spiraled out of control in 2018, reaching a mind-blowing 130,000%.
In 2019, that was down to 9,500%, and then around 3,000% in 2020.
Venezuelans have turned to using the United States dollar as much as possible to mitigate the effects of galloping price increases, shunning the national bolivar, a move that has helped slow inflation.
The populist-socialist government, which blames its woes on the U.S. sanctions, has even authorized the use of the dollar, viewed as a potent symbol of the hated American imperialism.
Authorities also tried to reduce the budget deficit in 2018 by relaxing the iron-fisted exchange controls, almost entirely eliminating the gulf between official and black market exchange rates.
Most experts, though, say there needs to be much deeper reforms to solve Venezuela's economic crisis.
Several experts believe Venezuela could lower inflation to as little as 120%-300% this year.
