Facing fields full of mines and short of cash, many Ukrainian farmers are likely to sow a smaller area this spring than they did following Russia's invasion, in what could be a further blow to global food supplies after disruptions last year.
Ukraine is a major supplier of wheat and corn to world markets, and production and exports slumped last year due to the war, sending prices for critical commodities sharply higher before stabilizing.
With farmers hurting from soaring costs, including fertilizer, Ukraine's export capacity is severely limited because of Russia's occupation of some areas and unexploded ordnance near former front lines; supply could be squeezed further.
The farmers, who began planting the country's spring crop last week, also earn less than before as buyers factor in the war's higher logistic costs and risks, giving them little incentive to maximize output. In addition, Ukraine can ship from three Black Sea ports at half capacity under an international shipping deal.
"Almost all crops are making a loss at the moment," said Dmitry Skornyakov, CEO of HarvEast, a large agricultural producer.
Agricultural companies, which plant most of Ukraine's fields, are short 40 billion hryvnias ($1.08 billion) to carry out spring work, the Agrarian Council said. As a result, the country's spring-planted crops mainly include corn, oilseeds and vegetables.
Denys Marchuk, deputy chair of the Ukrainian Agrarian Council, the most prominent farmer organization, expects plantings of corn, a fertilizer-intensive crop, to plummet 20% from last year, which saw a 27% decrease in harvested area.
Overall, the government expects spring plantings to fall only 5% from last year, underlining a more sanguine official assessment of potential losses.
The smaller spring crop would come as Ukraine's wheat harvest over winter is expected to fall sharply, although not enough to spur export curbs.
"Of course, it's not paradise. The situation is still challenging," Ukraine's first deputy farm minister, Taras Vysotskiy, told Reuters.
Farmers are likely to prioritize cheaper-to-grow sunflowers, said Mike Lee, director of Green Square Agro Consulting. Grains have traditionally dominated Ukraine's fields, but lower-cost and higher-priced oilseeds are gaining popularity during the war.
Ukraine was the world's fourth-largest corn exporter before Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022 and the biggest sunflower oil exporter.
Farmers in top exporters United States plan to boost corn plantings, possibly cushioning the blow of lower Ukrainian production.
Ukrainians will also likely plant less potato, a Ukrainian diet staple, due to poor profit potential, said Mykola Hordiichuk, managing director of Agrico Ukraine, a farming operation. He added that that might result in a shortage of retail-quality potatoes, increasing prices for Ukrainian consumers later in the year.
One optimistic sign: Ukrainian agricultural scientists said soil moisture reserves looked ample, helpful for germinating crops.
Mines are a growing occupational hazard. On Monday, authorities said two farmworkers died in separate mine explosions working fields in the southern Kherson and Mykolaiv regions.
Vasyl Shtendera, 49, who farms in a Kherson area recaptured by Ukraine last year, doubts he will plant crops this spring.
He said that his fields are mined, some equipment was destroyed, and fertilizer is too expensive.
"I have no moral right to send workers to fields as it is dangerous for life," he said, adding that no demining work is happening there.
Ukrainian media reported on Tuesday that companies lacking demining certification charge farmers up to $3,000 per hectare to clear fields.
Some Ukrainian officials estimate that all land in areas of hostility is mined, totaling some 10 million hectares (24.7 million acres) or nearly one-third of arable land. However, Vysotskiy estimated that the mined arable area might be just 2.5 million hectares, with only 500,000 hectares that will be impossible to use this spring.
The ministry aims to clear up to 800,000 hectares of farmland in time for planting, Vysotskiy said.
Michael Tirre, Europe program manager for the U.S. State Department's Office of Weapons Removal, which funds Ukrainian demining, said he sees impatient farmers trying to clear their mines, which gives him "goosebumps."
"It is a sad reality because there just aren't enough demining teams to go around."
Farmer Oleksandr Klepach has cleared dozens of shells around his Mykolaiv region farm, taking advice from demining experts and internet videos.
Coming up with a money-making plan is equally challenging. Fertilizer and transportation costs have doubled, but he intends to sow sunflowers and peas on land that turned to weeds during the occupation.
"I think it will be problematic to make a profit," he said.
