UK wages grow at slowest pace in nearly year in some relief to BoE
People are silhouetted against the City of London, London, Britain, Dec. 28, 2023. (EPA Photo)


Wages in the United Kingdom grew at the slowest pace in almost a year, according to official data on Tuesday that added to signs of a gradual cooling of the inflationary pressure in the labor market that has worried the Bank of England (BoE).

Growth in wages excluding bonuses slowed for a third release in a row to an annual 6.6% in the September-to-November period, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

It compared with 7.2% in the three months to October and matched the median forecast in a Reuters poll. It marks the weakest increase in regular earnings since the three months to January 2023.

Yael Selfin, a chief economist at KPMG UK, said the deceleration in pay growth signaled further weakness for the labor market ahead.

"The marked slowdown in pay growth will ease the Bank of England’s concerns of a potential wage-price spiral, which could lead to faster falls in inflation," Selfin said.

"Vacancies are also expected to fall further, which could see pay growth normalizing toward levels consistent with the inflation target by the end of the year. This will likely bolster the case for interest rate cuts later this year."

The ONS data also showed that U.K. unemployment stood at 4.2%, unchanged from the three months to the end of October.

The BoE has been worried that pay is rising too quickly for inflation to fall to its 2% target, despite a slowdown in the headline rate of price growth in recent months.

Including bonuses, which can be volatile, pay growth slowed to 6.5% from 7.2% in the three months to October.

"While annual pay growth remains high in cash terms, we continue to see signs that wage pressures might be easing overall," ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown said.

"However, with inflation still falling more quickly, earnings continued to grow in real terms."

All eyes will now be on official U.K. inflation data due on Wednesday, which is expected to reveal a further easing in the rate of price increases.

The annual rate currently stands at 3.9%, still far above the Bank of England's 2% target.

Britain's economy might have fallen into a recession in the second half of 2023, data showed last week.

Tuesday's ONS release showed vacancies fell for the 18th time in a row in the three months to December, dropping by about 49,000 in the final quarter of last year to 934,000.

McKeown added that while U.K. job vacancies fell again, mainly owing to cuts in retail positions, "the overall number ... remains above its pre-pandemic level."

However, inflation pressures remain in the labor market with many employers increasing pay sharply as they struggle to retain or hire staff.

The sterling edged down against the U.S. dollar.

The BoE raised borrowing costs 14 times between December 2021 and August 2023 and its benchmark rate has remained at a 15-year high since then.

Governor Andrew Bailey and other top officials at the BoE said repeatedly late last year that rates were likely to stay high for "an extended period." Bailey had been due to speak to lawmakers later on Tuesday but his appearance was postponed.

Markets are waiting to see when major central banks, notably the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB) and BoE, will start to cut interest rates as inflation continues to cool.