UK Treasury chief rules out tax cuts while inflation stays high
Britain's Treasury chief Jeremy Hunt smiles during a tour of TV studios at the annual Conservative Party Conference in Manchester, northern England, Oct. 2, 2023. (AFP Photo))


British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt poured cold water on growing calls for tax cuts within the governing Conservative Party Monday, saying he could not commit to any "inflationary" reduction before the next election.

Before his speech at the party's annual conference in the northern city of Manchester, Hunt was keen to announce a rise in the minimum wage for workers over 23 years old to at least 11 pounds ($13.42) an hour from 10.42 pounds.

The exact amount will be set after a recommendation by the Low Pay Commission, an advisory body.

That will mean a raise for over 2 million workers.

But Hunt's message was overshadowed by calls from senior Conservative lawmakers, including Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's predecessor, for tax cuts to close the gap in opinion polls with the opposition Labour Party before an election expected next year.

It was the latest row over the direction of the party under Sunak, who hopes to use the conference to revitalize his year-old premiership by showing he is not scared of taking tough decisions to try to make people better off.

The party is trying to sprinkle voter-pleasing measures such as the pay increase. But the government's spending power is constricted by the U.K.'s sluggish economy and stubbornly high inflation that hit double digits last year and now stands just below 7%.

Seeking to lower the expectations of those who are pressing the government to offer voters tax cuts, Hunt told Times Radio: "I believe in lowering taxes but we don't know whether that's going to be possible before the next election at the moment."

He said any tax cuts this year would be inflationary, making it more difficult to achieve Sunak's pledge made in January to halve inflation by the end of the year.

"Do we want to move to lower taxes as soon as we can? Yes, but it means difficult decisions and we're prepared to take those difficult decisions," Hunt told Sky News, adding that voters understood "how difficult these decisions are."

He also confirmed he would look again at the benefit sanctions regime to make it harder for people to claim welfare payments while refusing to take active steps to move into work, a trend that has accelerated since the coronavirus pandemic, saying he wanted to treat other taxpayers "fairly."

"Those who won't even look for work do not deserve the same benefits as people trying hard to do the right thing," Hunt was to say, according to excerpts of his speech released in advance by the Conservative Party.

At a conference where government divisions were also on the show over how to tackle illegal immigration, Sunak is hoping for a reset of sorts to rally a party that looks headed for a defeat in an election that must be held by January 2025.

The right-of-center Tories, in power since 2010, are lagging far behind the center-left opposition Labour Party in opinion polls. Voters are weary after years of political turmoil over the U.K.'s exit from the European Union, COVID-19, and a cost-of-living crisis fueled by Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year.

Sunak, who took office just under a year ago, has narrowed the gap with Labour after announcing a watering down of climate policies to reach net zero targets. But many Conservative lawmakers and members in Manchester are resigned to losing, and some ministers are using the conference to show their potential to replace him.

What has not helped Sunak's case among champions of traditional low-tax Conservative values is a report on Friday by the Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank that showed tax revenue was likely to represent 37% of annual economic output at the time of the next election – Britain's highest tax rate since at least the 1950s.

While the British government's tax take is high by historic standards at 33.5% of gross domestic product in 2021, it is well below that in other big Western European countries which is nearer 40%, according to OECD figures.

Sunak steadied the economy after his predecessor Liz Truss crashed the pound and trashed Britain's reputation for fiscal prudence with her tax-slashing economic plans. She left office after just 49 days.

Yet, many Conservatives doubt whether Sunak – the party's fifth leader since 2016 – can restore its popularity to the level that saw the party win an 80-seat majority in the 650-seat House of Commons in 2019, under then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson. He resigned in mid-2022 amid scandals over his ethics and judgment.

In recent weeks, Sunak has sought to take the initiative with a clutch of measures depicted as easing the economic burden on taxpayers. He has delayed a ban on selling new gas and diesel cars and watered down other green measures that he said imposed "unacceptable costs" on ordinary people.

Critics say the measures will have little impact on people's pocketbooks and will make it harder for Britain to reach its goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050 in order to limit climate change.

Hundreds of party lawmakers, activists and officials attending the four-day conference in Manchester are being wooed by rivals to Sunak, positioning themselves for a party leadership contest that could follow election defeat.

Home Secretary Suella Braverman and Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch are both addressing meetings and receptions as they vie for the support of the party's populist right wing, which wants tough curbs on irregular migration and a war on liberal social values derided as "woke." Foreign Secretary James Cleverly is popular with more centrist Conservatives.

Even Truss, who resigned in disgrace less than 12 months ago, is on hand to offer her opinion, keep her name in the headlines, and make life difficult for her successor.

Truss will speak just over an hour before Hunt takes to the main stage and will say she wants the Conservatives "to be the party of business again" by reducing taxes and red tape on companies.

Truss, whose plan for billions in unfunded tax cuts spooked the financial markets, is calling for the party to "revive Conservative values."

"We must unleash British business by cutting Corporation Tax," she will say, according to excerpts of her speech.

"So ahead of this year's Autumn Statement, we must make the Conservative Party the party of business once again, by getting Corporation Tax back down to 19%."

Hunt's response was blunt: "I will have a very clear message for Liz Truss and, in fact, the whole country when I give my speech this afternoon."

"There are no shortcuts. We have to take the difficult decisions to make it easier for companies to grow, we have to be much more efficient in the way that we're spending taxpayers' money including reforms to the welfare system."