British businesses are cautioning against a fresh wave of post-Brexit trade disruption because European Union exporters are unprepared for United Kingdom customs changes, which start this month, while Britain’s port infrastructure may not be ready either.
Britain left the European Union's single market in January 2021 but has repeatedly delayed imposing checks on EU imports.
In contrast, the EU immediately enforced its rules, leading to port delays in 2021 and prompting some British exporters – such as cheese-makers and high-end beef farmers – to give up on selling to the bloc, at least initially.
Make UK, representing manufacturers, said in December that 90% of firms it surveyed still faced problems doing business with the EU, with customs and clearance being the biggest barrier.
Marco Forgione, director general of the Institute of Export & International Trade, representing U.K. importers, said large EU firms would probably cope with Britain's new rules, but smaller ones – such as specialist food exporters – might struggle.
Some of them might decide it has become too complicated to trade with the U.K. and stop exporting, Forgione said.
"That then leads to price pressure and the possibility of scarcity," he said.
Three phases
Britain has postponed fully implementing its post-Brexit border controls on food and fresh products five times due to worries about port disruption and the cost-of-living crisis.
But its new Border Target Operating Model (BTOM) comes into force on Jan. 31 and will be introduced in three phases.
Initially, EU exporters of animal and plant products, such as eggs, dairy, meat and berries, will be required to present Export Health Certificates (EHCs) to British authorities.
But physical checks on shipments will only start on April 30, followed by a requirement for safety and security certificates from Oct. 31.
"We remain committed to delivering the most advanced border in the world," a government spokesperson said.
William Bain, head of trade policy at the British Chambers of Commerce, said there was a risk of congestion and delays when the checks start in April.
Britain imports up to 70% of its fresh food from the EU in winter, falling to about 30% in warmer months, with as many as 1,000 trucks arriving at its ports daily.
"Will the government enforce by preventing material that doesn't have an electronic EHC from entering the GB border? Or does it let stuff in and enforce through contact with the companies involved afterward?" Bain said.
"The government's not telling us what they're going to do."
The British Retail Consortium and the Fresh Produce Consortium have also expressed concern. The British Meat Processors Association worries that the EU's lack of veterinary capacity might slow health certification.
James Barnes, chair of the Horticultural Trades Association, said there was a risk that the U.K.'s new border infrastructure, processes and IT systems would not be ready for April, the biggest month for plant shipments.
"Unfortunately, it's happening when we think things aren't ready and at the busiest time of year," Barnes said.
The government said all infrastructure and systems were ready or on track to be ready by April and it would implement checks carefully to avoid delays.
The Dutch Association of Wholesalers in Floricultural Products called for delayed U.K. border checks until 2025.
That plea fell on deaf ears, but with a British national election expected in 2024, businesses hope the government might adopt a light touch to avoid delays and shortages.
"They've got the powers to dial up or dial down the mode of enforcement that they want to use, so it's entirely in their hands to wave stuff through," said the BCC's Bain.