Türkiye's annual inflation climbs above 61% in September
Shop owners wait for customers at the Grand Bazaar, in Istanbul, Türkiye, Sept. 14, 2023. (EPA Photo)


Türkiye's annual inflation held steady at around 60% in September, official data showed on Tuesday, marking the first evidence that the government's policy overhaul aimed primarily at containing price surges was working.

Consumer prices rose 61.5% over 12 months ending in September, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) said, below forecasts and up from 58.94% in August.

The reading still marks the highest level this year, following an easing trend before prices began to surge due to a decline in the Turkish lira and several tax hikes that came amid a shift in the country's monetary policy.

The month-over-month increase in prices slowed to nearly 4.8% in September, the institute said, compared to 9.1% in August and 9.5% in July.

The rise was spearheaded by a 30.3% monthly jump in the cost of education in the new school year. But the price of items such as clothing only rose by 2.6% in the month.

The core inflation, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, rose an annual 68.9% in September from 64.9% in August.

The lowest annual price changes were seen in housing at 20.16%, clothing and footwear at 32.54%, and communication at 46.59%.

Meanwhile, the highest increases were posted by hotels, cafes, and restaurants at 92.48%, education at 80.96%, and health at 79.79%.

The inflation reached a 24-year high of 85.5% in October and dropped to an 18-month low of 38.2% this June before bouncing to 47.83% in July.

The data suggest that the inflation rate is starting to peak after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan named a new economic team of technocrats with Wall Street experience and broad support among foreign investors to embrace more conventional economic policies, including aggressive monetary tightening.

"The small rise in inflation to 61.5% last month, from 58.9% in August, provides the first signs that the inflation spike is close to leveling off," Capital Economics analyst William Jackson said.

Last month, the central bank raised its key interest rate by 500 basis points to 30%, tightening policy for four straight months after the May elections. Since the June policy U-turn, it has hiked rates by 2,150 basis points to rein in inflation.

The central bank and economists have forecast an upward trend in inflation for the rest of the year. The monetary authority has repeatedly vowed to deliver additional tightening if needed to ensure a disinflation trend in the upcoming year.

The economic overhaul included a series of steps that contributed to a short-term spike in prices.

"Inflation in Türkiye is being fuelled by a vicious mix of deeply negative real interest rates, hefty wage hikes, an overhaul of the tax system and persistent lira weakness," Conotoxia investment house analyst Bartosz Sawicki said.

The monthly jump in prices "is further exacerbated by soaring food prices and skyrocketing oil prices," Sawicki added.

The Standard and Poor's rating agency was impressed enough by the government's approach to lift its long-term outlook for Türkiye from "negative" to "stable" last week, citing moves to cool the economy and stabilize the exchange rate.

"We believe that by 2026, absent renewed political uncertainty, the new team can rebalance (Türkiye's) economy ... toward more balanced external and fiscal accounts, as well as more acceptable levels of inflation," the agency said.

Hafize Gaye Erkan, the central bank governor Erdoğan named in June, is set to address the Parliament later on Tuesday.

The domestic producer price index was up 3.4% month-over-month in September for an annual rise of 47.44%, according to the TurkStat data.