Annual consumer price increases in Türkiye moderated further in April, easing for the sixth consecutive month, in a trend the government says is expected to continue as the nation heads to critical elections slated for May 14.
The consumer price index (CPI) has almost halved since reaching a peak in October, easing to an annual 43.68% last month, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) said Wednesday.
The reading marks a notable regress from 85.51% in October last year – a 24-year peak. It fell in December and touched 50.51% by March, with a favorable base effect and a relatively stable Turkish lira.
Month-over-month, the inflation rose 2.39% in April, the TurkStat said. The official numbers came in less than predicted, with a median monthly estimate of 2.60% and an annual forecast of 44% in the latest Reuters poll.
The data also showed that the producer price index (PPI) eased to an 18-month low of 52.11% in April from 62.45% a month ago.
Among the main industrial sectors, prices for the energy industry surged 49.33% yearly in April, and those for non-durable consumer goods grew 50.57%.
Month-over-month, producer prices edged up 0.81% in April versus a 0.44% rise in the preceding month.
Treasury and Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati cited a nearly 42-point drop in inflation from the peak, stressing a rapidly narrowing gap between CPI and PPI, which he said fell to single-digit levels from 72.2 points in October.
In a statement following the data release, Nebati stressed that they expect the decline in inflation to continue.
"The deceleration in headline inflation and the fact that the gap between PPI and CPI continues to close gradually positively impact inflation expectations as well," he said.
"While the world is struggling with recession concerns and employment losses, we are firmly continuing our fight against inflation without compromising production, employment and growth," Nebati noted.
"We expect this rapid decline, which results from our determined fight against inflation, to continue in the coming months and annual inflation to fall to much lower levels later this year."
The latest inflation marked the lowest since December 2021, when prices had risen 36.08%.
Annually, the most significant increase was seen in the health sector with 66.62%, followed by restaurants and hotels with 66.41% and food and non-alcoholic beverages with 53.92%.
Every month, communication prices rose 5.93%, restaurant and hotel prices rose 4.24%, and food and nonalcoholic beverage prices jumped 3.95%
Haluk Bürümcekçi of Bürümcekçi Consulting predicted that annual inflation could decline until June due to the base effects.
"Annual CPI could decrease to, at most, around 40% levels in the first half of the year and end up in the range of 50-55% for the year," he wrote in a note.
Bürümcekçi also said, "There is uncertainty regarding the balance point of exchange rates and interest rates for the second half of the year due to the elections."
The data showed that core inflation came in at 3.2% month-over-month in April and 45.5% annually, mainly attributable to core goods.
