Trade between Turkey and the United States is rising at a pace unseen before in the decades-old partnership between the two NATO allies, despite disagreements that have frayed relations over the recent years.
Intensified talks between the two countries’ diplomats so far this year, the launch of a strategic mechanism and Ankara’s role in the Ukraine war are, however, signaling intentions to mend and strengthen ties.
Add to that reports that have suggested the Biden administration's efforts to convince U.S. lawmakers to greenlight a new arms deal with Turkey.
Despite rifts, trade flow between Turkey and the U.S. maintained a steady course, before booming at the beginning of 2022, signaling it could easily top the turnover recorded in 2021.
The U.S. has been ranking among Turkey’s top three export markets from January through April. Sales to the U.S. leaped by more than 50% last month alone to reach $1.53 billion (TL 23.56 billion), marking a record on monthly basis, according to the data by the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TIM).
The turnover followed the highest first-quarter exports ever, as sales rose by nearly a third to $3.5 billion, the data showed.
The bilateral trade volume also soared by a third throughout last year and reached an all-time high of $28 billion in 2021.
Sales in April were higher by more than $511 million versus last year, enabling the U.S. to account for 6.6% of Turkey’s overall exports.
It was Turkey’s second-biggest market last month. Yet, on a value basis, it topped the list among countries where Turkish exporters saw their sales increase the most.
It was followed by Germany with an increase of $315 million, Spain with $236 million, Romania with $226 million and the Netherlands with $201 million.
Among goods categories, the chemicals industry led the way and accounted for $225.28 million of sales to the U.S. last month, a 202.4% year-over-year increase.
It was followed by automotive with nearly $188 million, steel with $136 million, jewelry with $103.29 million and ready-to-wear with $100.6 million, the data showed.
Among noteworthy increases, ship and yacht industry exports were up 188.1% to $4.31 million, fruits and vegetable sales rose 147.9% to $41.74 million, while leather and leather products surged 132.8% to $6.88 million.
Intensified efforts
Turkey and the U.S. aim for $100 billion in bilateral trade, a target endorsed by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his American counterpart, Joe Biden.
To keep with the commitments made by Erdoğan and Biden during their meeting in Rome in October last year, Ankara and Washington last month announced the launch of a strategic mechanism to further expand the countries’ bilateral cooperation.
It came as a culmination of months of talks to set up a procedure for improving their strained ties, eyeing to unlock potential cooperation in areas of defense and the economy.
Washington has been praising Ankara’s considerable mediation efforts to end the war in Ukraine and its supplying Kyiv with the Bayraktar TB2 combat drones, which significantly contributed to warming the relations.
In what could turn into another major development, the Biden administration has informally reached out to the U.S. Congress to seek approval for a proposed sale of missiles and equipment upgrades to Turkey, sources told Reuters on Wednesday.
The weapons package was an existing request by Ankara and includes AIM-120 medium-range air-to-air and sidewinder missiles, as well as hardware and software updates for F-16 fighter jets, sources said.
The news on the package was first reported by The Wall Street Journal.
The package, which one source said would be worth around $300 million, is separate from the multibillion-dollar upgrade deal that Turkey requested from the United States last October, asking to buy 40 Lockheed Martin F-16 jets and nearly 80 modernization kits for its existing warplanes.
The State Department, when asked about the deal, said it does not "publicly comment on or confirm proposed defense transfers until they have been formally notified to Congress."
The U.S. and Turkey have "longstanding and deep bilateral defense ties, and Turkey’s continued NATO interoperability remains a priority," a State Department spokesperson added.
Congress’ response to the smaller deal may provide insight into how it will react to the bigger F-16 sale, which is crucial for Ankara’s air force.
U.S. and Turkish officials are advocating for the F-16 deal, arguing that it could help repair the American-Turkish defense relationship, which frayed after Ankara chose to buy a Russian S-400 air missile defense system in 2017.
A separate report last week suggested several U.S. lawmakers, who proved instrumental in expelling Turkey from the F-35 program, have signaled inclination in favor of the deal to allow Ankara’s purchase of F-16s.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently said that foreign military sales to key U.S. partners like Turkey should be expedited and bureaucratic hurdles removed.
However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may have provided an opening, many analysts say.
Ankara has criticized the invasion and sold drones to Kyiv despite Russian objections. But it has also opposed Western sanctions against Moscow and maintained careful rhetoric.
The Biden administration has refrained from publicly expressing any opinion on the proposed F-16 sale, but a letter from the State Department in March to a group of lawmakers argued in favor of "appropriate defense trade ties" with Turkey, without openly supporting it.