Turkey's consumer price inflation edged slightly down to 11.75% year-on-year in September, lower than forecasts, the country’s national statistical body announced Monday.
The inflation was slightly down from 11.77% in August, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat). Month-on-month, consumer prices rose 0.97% in September, the data showed.
A Reuters poll of 12 economists projected inflation to rise to 12.13%, with estimates ranging between 11.79% and 13%.
On a monthly basis, inflation was expected to be 1.35%, with forecasts between 1.01% and 2.10%.
A panel of 14 economists polled by Anadolu Agency (AA) expected the inflation to rise to 12.20%.
The consumer price index survey ranged between 0.94% at its lowest and 2.10% at its highest – an average of 1.38% monthly increase.
The highest annual increase was seen in miscellaneous goods and services with 25.17% in September, according to the data.
It was followed by health at 15.09% and food and non-alcoholic beverages at 14.95%, while the lowest increase was in alcoholic beverages and tobacco – 0.68%.
Furnishing and household equipment posted the highest monthly increase of 3.02%, while two items – clothing and footwear and education – posted negative inflation by minus 0.03% and minus 0.07%, respectively.
"In September 2020 within average prices of 418 items in the index, the average prices of 62 items decreased and the average prices of 42 items remained unchanged while the average prices of 314 items increased," the institute added.
“The data received are more positive than expectations, said Enver Erkan, an economist at Istanbul-based private investment firm Tera Yatırım.
“We see that the slowdown driven by low demand, especially due to clothing prices, rather than the cost pressure from the increase in the exchange rate, was more effective in September inflation,” Erkan said in a note.
According to the official figures, the 12-month average hike in consumer prices was 11.47% as of this September.
The government last week revised its year-end inflation expectation to 10.5%, citing increased unit costs and pass-through effect from exchange rates.
To counter sticky inflation, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) last month unexpectedly hiked interest rates by 200 basis points to 10.25%, tightening policy for the first time in two years, saying a fast recovery from the initial coronavirus shock had kept prices too elevated.
The central bank in July raised its year-end inflation forecast to 8.9% from 7.4%. It said the 1.5 percentage-point increase was driven by an upward revision in oil prices and food inflation projections.
Over the last decade, the annual inflation saw its lowest level at 3.99% in March 2011, while it peaked at 25.24% in October 2018.
