Türkiye is set to traverse the final days of February and the first week of March amid a dense agenda of data releases from economic growth for 2023 and February’s foreign trade data to inflation figures.

Data on Thursday is likely to show Türkiye’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded up to 4.4% last year, as domestic demand boosted the economy, and it should cool off in 2024 with tighter economic policies.

The economy grew around 4% in the first two quarters of the year, affected by production disruptions following massive earthquakes that hit the country's southeast in February and by the central bank's low-rates policy before May elections, which encouraged consumers to borrow and spend to get ahead of high inflation and Turkish lira depreciation.

It expanded by a more-than-expected 5.9% in the third quarter, driven primarily by solid household spending.

The economy grew an annual 5.5% in 2022 and 3.3% in the last quarter of that year.

The median estimate in a Reuters poll of 30 economists for 2023 GDP growth stood at 4.3%, very close to the government's medium-term program forecast of 4.4%, with forecasts ranging between 3% and 5.3%, despite a slowdown in main trading partners and devastating earthquakes.

The poll also put growth in the fourth quarter at 3.5%, according to the median estimate, in a range between 2.4% and 4.7%.

A survey by Anadolu Agency (AA) estimates a 3.97% growth in the last three-month period and an expansion of 4.4% for the whole of 2023.

The rate of increase in both the retail volume index and real credit card spending eased in the last quarter of the year, but domestic demand continued to be the main driver of growth, said Serkan Gönençler, chief economist at Gedik Yatırım.

"We can easily say that although the contribution of domestic demand decreased in the last quarter compared to previous quarters, it continues to be the main engine of economic growth. Increases in tax revenues, VAT and special consumption tax also show that domestic demand maintained its strength," Gönençler also said.

Since June, the country’s bank has pivoted policy and gradually hiked its benchmark rate to 45% from 8.5%. The government raised some taxes and implemented policies to ease soaring domestic demand.

Economists and business groups have previously said earthquake rebuilding could cost Türkiye up to $100 billion (TL 3.11 trillion) and shave some points off economic growth in 2023.

GDP growth in 2024 is expected to be 2.9%, based on the median estimate in the Reuters poll, well below the government forecast of 4% set in September. Predictions ranged from 1% to 4%.

Additionally, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) will also announce the service producer price index for January on Thursday.

On Saturday, Trade Minister Ömer Bolat will announce the export figure for February in southeastern Adıyaman province.

Exporters picked up from where they left off in 2023 and achieved their best-ever start of the year in January, with sales climbing 3.6% year-over-year to over $20 billion. Imports shrank by 22% to $26.2 billion.

The foreign trade deficit narrowed by 57% to $6.2 billion.

The nation's exports reached a third straight annual peak to a total of $255.8 billion in 2023, a 0.6% year-over-year increase from $254 billion in 2022.

Led by a new governor, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) said last week the policy stance would be tightened if a significant and persistent deterioration in the inflation outlook is anticipated.

Fatih Karahan was appointed central bank governor on Feb. 3 following the resignation of Hafize Gaye Erkan, who said she needed to protect her family from what she called a media smear campaign.

In his first public appearance, Karahan said the bank would maintain a tight policy stance until inflation, running at nearly 65%, drops to target, keeping a year-end forecast of 36%.

The inflation rose 6.7% on a monthly basis in January on the back of some big one-off annual price rises and a 49% minimum wage increase.

It is expected to peak by the middle of the year and enter a steep downward trend toward the end of 2024, according to officials. Market forecasts for end-year inflation are between 40%-45%.

TurkStat is set to unveil the February consumer price index (CPI) next Monday.