Türkiye is envisaged to close 2023 with a national income that exceeds the $1 trillion (TL 29.34 trillion) mark, a top trade official said Tuesday, expressing optimism about next year despite the complex global political and economic landscape.

"We have a strong economy. Despite significant challenges at home and abroad, we can still quickly stand up and continue to strengthen. Türkiye is well-managed, and there is a positive international outlook toward our country," Trade Minister Ömer Bolat told the Türkiye Export Mobilization Summit.

The event in the southeastern Gaziantep province, among the worst hit areas by the devastating earthquakes in February, was organized by Türkiye’s leading media group and Daily Sabah’s parent company, Turkuvaz Media Group.

"We will close 2023 with a national income of over $1 trillion, and our per capita national income will rise to $12,500," said Bolat.

"We are hopeful for 2024, and despite the global political and economic situation, we will persistently work with determination toward the Century of Türkiye goals," Bolat said.

Türkiye’s economy expanded by a more-than-expected 5.9% year-over-year in the third quarter. It achieved a 4.7% average growth in the first nine months of the year.

The economy is expected to end 2023 with a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of over 4% as activity begins to slow after aggressive monetary tightening meant to cool domestic demand and high inflation.

Bolat acknowledged the global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, spearheaded by disruptions in supply chains and logistics, yet emphasized Türkiye's pivotal role as a production and supply hub, leading to a surge in exports.

Outbound shipments hit nearly $233 billion from January through November, edging up by 0.7% from last year, propelling the country a step closer to achieving its best annual sales to foreign markets ever. Imports rose 0.5% to $332.8 billion.

The 12-month rolling exports reached $255.8 billion, marking a 0.9% increase.

Exports reached over $254 billion in 2022, lifting the previous all-time high of nearly $225.4 billion in 2021. Sales were hit by the pandemic and dropped to as low as $169.5 billion in 2020.

Bolat also addressed the anti-inflationary program and the government's measures to combat exorbitant prices in the automotive and real estate industries, which he says eventually helped stabilize the markets.

Türkiye has embraced more conventional policymaking after the May elections and delivered aggressive monetary tightening aimed at arresting soaring inflation, reducing trade deficits, rebuilding foreign exchange reserves and stabilizing the Turkish lira.

Since June, the central bank has lifted its one-week repo rate by 3,400 basis points. The bank last week suggested it was closer to the finish line by saying it expects to "complete the tightening cycle as soon as possible."

The monetary authority expects inflation to rise from nearly 62% last month to 70-75% in May, before dipping to about 36% by the end of next year as tightening cools prices.

"With the monetary, fiscal and exchange rate program of the new government, we have started to see the effects of the anti-inflationary program. Monthly inflation increases came below 4% in October and November, core inflation came to 2.9%," said Bolat.

However, the minister acknowledged that not everything is within their control and that the effects of global developments sometimes make things difficult.

"But no giving up, efforts will continue," said Bolat.

The minister highlighted Türkiye's resilience in the face of extraordinary circumstances, including the February earthquakes that ripped through southeastern provinces, killing over 50,000 people, leveling hundreds of thousands of buildings, and severely damaging the infrastructure.

"This year, demand decreased worldwide, and global production slowed down. In addition to that, we experienced a major shock with the earthquakes on Feb. 6, resulting in a loss of $6.5 billion (in exports)," Bolat stated.

He expressed optimism about 2024, citing positive trends in trade balances, a reduction in trade deficits, and successful efforts to regain lost markets.

"We started our exports with an 8% loss in the first two months, but we hope to finish in a positive territory. We will also conclude our service exports with a 13% surplus. Our foreign trade deficit and current account deficit have started to decline, and there is a decrease in our imports compared to the same months of last year," Bolat said.

"Our exports have consistently increased in the last five to six months compared to the same months last year. We managed to regain the markets and quantities we lost in the first half. We are hopeful for 2024, despite the political and economic landscape and certain wars in the world."