Russia on Monday announced it had halted an unprecedented wartime deal allowing the grain to safely flow from Ukraine to parts of the world where millions are going hungry, a fresh threat to global food security.
Moscow will suspend the Black Sea Grain Initiative until its demands to get its own food and fertilizer to the world are met, said Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov. While Russia has long complained that restrictions on shipping and insurance have hampered its agricultural exports, it has shipped record amounts of wheat.
“The Black Sea agreements have de facto ended today,” Peskov told reporters. “Unfortunately, the part of these Black Sea agreements concerning Russia has not been implemented so far, so its effect is terminated,” he added.
“When the part of the Black Sea deal related to Russia is implemented, Russia will immediately return to the implementation of the deal,” Peskov said.
The suspension marks the end of a breakthrough accord that the U.N. and Türkiye brokered last summer to allow food to leave the Black Sea region after Russia’s invasion of its neighbor nearly a year and a half ago worsened a global food crisis.
Ukraine and Russia are both major global suppliers of wheat, barley, sunflower oil and other affordable food products that developing nations rely on.
The grain deal provided assurances that ships won’t be attacked entering and leaving Ukrainian ports, while a separate agreement facilitated the movement of Russian food and fertilizer. While Western sanctions do not apply to Moscow’s agricultural shipments, some companies may be wary of doing business with Russia because of the measures.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, said the suspension was expected and believes it’s political theater.
“The statement itself immediately includes an escape clause,” he said. “Therefore, we are dealing with classic public techniques of the Russian Federation that no longer require significant reciprocal reactions.”
Russia has officially notified Türkiye, Ukraine and the United Nations that it is against extending the initiative, the RIA news agency reported on Monday, citing Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the deal’s powerful sponsor, said he still believed his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin wanted it to continue.
“Despite the statement made today, I believe Russian President Putin wants the continuation of this humanitarian bridge,” Erdoğan told reporters ahead of his departure for Saudi Arabia as part of a three-day Gulf tour.
He said he would talk with the Russian leader before his anticipated visit to Türkiye in August.
An agreement to extend the deal “without interruptions” could still be possible before Putin’s visit, Erdoğan noted.
“We will also discuss how we can act to open the way for the transport of Russian fertilizer and grain.”
Erdoğan said Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan would hold talks with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov on Monday and added that he hoped for progress on the issue.
“I hope that with this discussion, we can make some progress and continue on our way without a pause,” he said.
Putin had threatened last week to suspend participation in the grain deal while also saying Russia could return to it if its demands were met for easier rules for its own agriculture and fertilizer exports.
“We can suspend our participation in the deal, and if everyone once again says that all the promises made to us will be fulfilled, then let them fulfill this promise. We will immediately rejoin this deal,” he said.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described Russia’s suspension of the agreement as a “cynical move” and said the European Union would continue to try to secure food for poor countries.
“I strongly condemn Russia’s cynical move to terminate the Black Sea Grain Initiative,” she tweeted.
Britain said the statement by Moscow was “disappointing” and accused Russia of risking global “suffering.”
“Clearly, that is very disappointing,” U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s spokesperson told reporters following the Kremlin announcement, adding Moscow “will be robbing millions of people of access to vital grain.”
The suspension of the deal sent wheat prices up about 3% in Chicago, trading at $6.81 a bushel. Analysts don’t expect more than a temporary bump to food commodity prices because places like Russia and Brazil have ratcheted up wheat and corn exports, but food insecurity worldwide is growing.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative has allowed three Ukrainian ports to export 32.9 million metric tons of grain and other food to the world, more than half of that to developing nations, according to the Joint Coordination Center (JCC) in Istanbul.
The agreement was renewed for 60 days in May, but in recent months, the amount of food shipped and the number of vessels departing Ukraine has plunged, with Russia accused of preventing additional ships from participating.
The war in Ukraine sent food commodity prices to record highs last year and contributed to a global food crisis also tied to other conflicts, the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, droughts and other climate factors.
High costs for grain needed for food staples in places like Egypt, Lebanon and Nigeria exacerbated economic challenges and helped push millions more people into poverty or food insecurity.
Rising food prices affect people in developing countries disproportionately because they spend more of their money on meals. Poorer nations that depend on imported food priced in dollars also are spending more as their currencies weaken and they are forced to import more because of climate change. Places like Somalia, Kenya, Morocco and Tunisia are struggling with drought.
Under the deal, prices for global food commodities like wheat and vegetable oil have fallen, but food was already expensive before the war in Ukraine and the relief hasn’t trickled down to kitchen tables.
“The Black Sea deal is absolutely critical for the food security of a number of countries,” and its loss will compound the problems for those facing high debt levels and climate fallout, said Simon Evenett, professor of international trade and economic development at the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland.
He noted that rising interest rates meant to target inflation and weakening currencies “are making it harder for many developing countries to finance purchases in dollars on the global markets.”
The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said this month that 45 countries need outside food assistance, with high local food prices “a driver of worrying levels of hunger” in those places.
The grain deal has faced some setbacks since it was brokered by the U.N. and Türkiye: Russia pulled out briefly in November before rejoining and extending the deal.
In March and May, Russia would only extend the deal for 60 days instead of the usual 120. The amount of grain shipped per month fell from a peak of 4.2 million metric tons in October to 1.3 million metric tons in May, the lowest volume since the deal began.
Exports expanded in June to a bit over 2 million metric tons, thanks to larger ships able to carry more cargo.
Asked Monday whether an attack on a bridge connecting the Crimean Peninsula to Russia was a factor in the decision on the grain deal, the Kremlin spokesperson said it was not.
“No, these developments aren’t connected,” Peskov said. “Even before this terror attack, President (Vladimir) Putin had declared our stand on that.” The bridge served as a major artery for Russian troops fighting in Ukraine.
Denys Marchuk, deputy head of the Ukrainian Agrarian Council, the main agribusiness organization in Ukraine, sounded bullish about the prospect of again continuing seaborne exports without Russia’s participation.
“As an option, why don’t we assess the possibility of the continuation of the grain deal without Russia? We had experience of this already in November 2022,” he told Reuters.
“If there will be safety guarantees from our partners, then why not conduct the grain initiative without Russia’s participation?”
Ukraine has accused Russia of preventing new ships from joining the work since the end of June, with 29 waiting in the waters off Türkiye to join the initiative. Joint inspections meant to ensure vessels only carry grain and not weapons that could help either side also have slowed considerably.
Average daily inspections have steadily dropped from a peak of 11 in October to about 2.3 in June. Ukrainian and U.S. officials have blamed Russia for the slowdowns.
Meanwhile, Russia’s wheat shipments hit all-time highs following a large harvest. It exported 45.5 million metric tons in the 2022-2023 trade year, with another record of 47.5 million metric tons expected in 2023-2024, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates.
The earlier figure is more wheat than any country ever has exported in one year, said Caitlin Welsh, director of the Global Food and Water Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
