Greece and the forthcoming elections

Greek elections will take place this weekend and the left front, led by Alexis Tsipras and the Syriza, is very likely to become the premier political force in the country, easily distancing the ailing Nea Demokratia of former Premier Andonis Samaras.

The whole political maneuver staged by Andonis Samaras seems to have badly backfired and the forthcoming elections might ignite another period of political instability. Still, lots of time has passed since the 2010 crisis in Greece and, despite the fact that the economic situation has barely improved, the popular reactions have sensibly changed.

Firstly, the Greek political elite, as a single man, opposes the reformation projects set forth by the Troika. The Troika, itself, is an extremely repulsive faceless institution, made up of the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund. They have been managing the bail-out process of Greece, which was coupled with a deep-rooted overhaul of the public accounts and the state-owned economic sector.

The bail-out process has produced some results, mainly by limiting public expenditure, which has created a very deep resentment among the population. That has helped a neo-fascist movement, Hrisi Avgi, to become a sizeable political force in the country. The reforms and privatizations on the other hand have remained totally ineffective, due to a staunch resistance on the part of the Greek administration.

Already, it is not clear yet whether the austerity policy, even coupled with reforms, will give probing results. In the absence of any structural change, only very limited positive results have been obtained.

The incredible foreign debt amassed can hardly be paid back by Greece. The wealth of the population has not dwindled too tragically, but the country does not produce enough to be able to pay back the foreign debt within the imparted timeframe. That was the main demand addressed by Premier Samaras to the Troika, which has been rejected on the grounds that the Greek economy was not delivering enough to benefit from the limitations on public spending. Samaras did not get a positive response. In retaliation, he has organised early presidential elections, which reinforced further the IMF's intransigence. The latter has refused to make the payments to the Greek Treasury until a new government is formed and a new agreement has been formalized by the latter to abide by the austerity and restructuring programme.

This time, Greek politicians are likely to produce a genuinely new political force, represented by Tsipras. The Troika will certainly find Syriza a much tougher partner, but it is obvious that the Greek economy cannot totally rupture itself from the Troika. What will perhaps happen is that the Syriza will accept a continuing of a softened recovery policy, while the Troika will have to deliver a new and feasible program for Greece to pay back its debt, including, very likely, a new and consequent haircut.

The popular joke in Greece is to ask "what is the difference between a Monarchy and a Parliamentarian Democracy?" The answer was invariably "in a monarchy, there is a single dynasty reigning, in a parliamentarian democracy, there are two dynasties reigning alternately." As a matter of fact, there are structured political oligarchies established in Greece, the names and even political stances of the parties may change, but the ruling political elites have come from the same families since World War 1. With Syriza in the government, the real change will be in this domain, maybe it will also trigger some real restructuring of a stagnant society.